The ADP non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, and initial jobless claims dropped significantly. The data once again shows a tug-of-war! 1.8 Bitcoin Auntie's evening thoughts

Data released on Wednesday showed that after an increase of 146,000 in November, ADP employment rose by 122,000 in December, the lowest in four months and below market expectations. The data indicates that the trend of a gradually weakening U.S. labor market will continue until the end of this year. Federal Reserve officials must balance this trend with renewed inflation concerns when deciding on the extent of interest rate cuts in 2025 and beyond! Later data showed that initial jobless claims in the U.S. recorded 201,000, the lowest since the week of February 17, 2024, below the expected 218,000 and the previous value of 211,000; continuing claims were recorded at 1.867 million, in line with expectations, with the previous value revised from 1.844 million to 1.834 million. The two datasets are once again at odds, having little impact on the currency price!

Looking at the technical side, the currency price continued to show bearish trends throughout the day, hitting a low of around 94,500. The Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart have opened significantly, with the price near the lower band. The KDJ’s three lines have turned upward from a low position, and the MACD's volume is also starting to shrink. Conan predicts that if U.S. stocks do not open lower, the currency price may rebound for a correction! The overall bearish trend remains unchanged, and those holding short positions can continue to adjust! The evening strategy is as follows:

1.8 Bitcoin evening and early morning operation strategy: Enter short in the rebound at 97,000-97,500, add to positions at 98,000-98,500, with a stop-loss above 99,000, targeting around 96,000-95,000-94,500, and if broken, look towards 94,000-93,500.

Long position strategy: Initially test around 94,000 to attempt to go long, with a stop-loss of 600 points, targeting around 95,000-96,000, and if broken, look towards 96,500-97,000.

1.8 Ethereum evening and early morning operation strategy: Enter short in the rebound around 3,450, add to positions near 3,500, with a stop-loss around 3,560, targeting around 3,400-3,350-3,300, and if broken, hold and see the situation!

Long position strategy: Initially test 3,300 to attempt to go long, with a stop-loss around 3,250, targeting around 3,350-3,400, and if broken, look towards 3,420-3,450.

Yesterday's short position entered around 102,000 continues to be in play. If U.S. stocks perform poorly, the currency price is expected to break 90,000! Recently, unless a substantial amount of capital continues to flow in, the currency price is unlikely to return to a bull market. However, large holders and institutions may also be preparing to place bets around Trump's presidency! Everyone should refrain from blindly bottom-fishing for now!