AI Smart Economy: A Future that Subverts Traditional Work
In recent weeks, I’ve been thinking a lot about a future dominated by artificial intelligence (AI), and the more I think about it, the more questions I’m left with. Here’s a scenario that could happen in the next 5-10 years, and it could change how we define work and how the economy works.
1. The rise of the AI agent economy
According to the latest research:
“Instead of traditional ‘salaried’ employees, we are moving towards a more granular task-based compensation economy (e.g. renting 3 AI agents for 30 minutes each to solve a specific task).”
This means that the future economy will be driven by thousands of AI agents capable of performing various tasks from transactions to wedding planning to booking flights. Many traditional human jobs will be replaced by AI. If you believe your job is irreplaceable, remember that what you are interacting with now may be the most basic version of AI, which will only become more powerful.
2. Collapse of Knowledge Work Hierarchies
The ability of AI to instantly acquire, integrate, and apply information will disrupt the hierarchical system of traditional knowledge work. Entry-level positions, in particular, may be among the first areas to be impacted. For example:
- Why hire a junior content creator in 2025 when AI can produce higher quality content faster and at a lower cost?
- Why hire junior frontend developers when a customized GPT model can be trained in just a few hours?
This will lead to a reduction in job opportunities for young people, while the costs of business digitization will drastically decrease, further exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand.
3. Imbalance between Supply and Demand in the Labor Market
With the reduction of entry-level positions, more and more young people will face unemployment, and the proliferation of AI will worsen this issue. Meanwhile, the operational costs for businesses, particularly in the digital domain, will significantly lower. However, this situation could trigger a vicious cycle: rising unemployment leads to decreased consumer spending power, which in turn suppresses the growth of the digital economy.
Moreover, robotics will have a profound impact on various industries such as manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics, exacerbating social divisions:
- Adapters: Those who utilize AI for entrepreneurship or transformation.
- The Left Behind: Those lacking capital or knowledge will struggle to adapt to changes.
The result will be an even wider gap between the rich and the poor, with fewer opportunities for upward mobility.
Questions and Responses about the Future
Question 1: Where will salary jobs go?
Salary jobs will decrease or even disappear, and the following trends may emerge:
- Task-based Work: Workers are compensated based on specific outputs rather than hours worked.
- Human Unique Skill Positions: Jobs requiring emotional intelligence and complex interpersonal interactions, such as therapists, may still be dominated by humans.
- AI Oversight Roles: New 'AI supervisors' professions will emerge, responsible for overseeing AI outputs and system optimization.
- Hybrid Roles: Workers collaborate with AI, enhancing AI outputs in areas like marketing and design.
Question 2: How will the new generation make a living?
The disappearance of traditional entry-level positions poses challenges for young people, but the following solutions may also emerge:
- Education and Skill Restructuring: The education system needs to cultivate skills that complement AI, such as creativity and critical thinking.
- Universal Basic Income (UBI): Governments may implement UBI to provide economic security for those unemployed due to automation.
- Entrepreneurial Wave: AI lowers the barriers to entrepreneurship, allowing young people to use tools to create niche products or services.
- Digital Microeconomy: More platforms will emerge, allowing people to profit from unique talents or knowledge.
Widespread Impact and Potential Solutions
1. Policy Interventions: Governments or regulations should address the impact of AI on the labor market, ensuring that human workers are still employed.
2. AI Transparency: Society needs to promote fairness and transparency in AI deployment to avoid excessive concentration of power.
3. Redefining Work: Shifting from work as a source of income to a model more oriented towards social contribution.
Conclusion:
The arrival of the AI economy will bring unprecedented challenges, accompanied by profound opportunities. We need to proactively adapt to changes through policy interventions, skill enhancements, and redefining economic models to ensure that the development of AI benefits more people rather than exacerbating social inequalities. The future may be full of uncertainties, but our choices will determine whether the AI economy is bright or dark.
