This is a very long article, please like (follow) it first and then read it!
This article mainly introduces my judgment on the major market trends of US stocks, A shares and Bitcoin in 2025.
Maybe, I may intersperse some specific views on a certain sector, but the most important thing is the judgment of the overall market, because my individual stocks and specific targets are often trapped and I often lose money...
1. Conclusion
To come to the conclusion directly: I believe that the increase in the A-share index in 2025 will be higher than that of the U.S. stock index. The increase in the U.S. stock index (taking the S&P 500 as an example) should be between -8% and +8%. As for Bitcoin, the price cannot be predicted, and the general trend is the same as that of the U.S. stock market.
The trend of Bitcoin in 25 years should be to find the first selling point (most likely to appear in Q1 and Q2), then wait for the buying point (Bitcoin is expected to fall by 30%+ in 2025), and continue to wait for the selling point in the second half of the year.
The U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market will not see a general rise in small-cap stocks or a general rise in altcoins, but rather a rotation of local hot sectors.
US stocks and Bitcoin are suitable for swing trading in 2025. The timing for swing trading needs to wait for a larger retracement than in 2024 before buying. If you have no experience in investing in US stocks/Bitcoin before, don't touch it now! !
A-share long-term value investment positions can be deployed at 3200 points (now). In fact, you can stop reading here.
All you need to do is "Like + Follow". When I run away/increase/reduce my position in the future, I will ask you to remember to "Like + Follow" so that you won't get lost. 2. Lengthy explanation
1. Let’s talk about US stocks first
(1) Let’s take a look at the major institutional investment banks’ predictions for the US stock market in 2025
These institutions predict that the S&P 500 will increase by up to +19% by 2025, with the index reaching 7,100.
The lowest increase is expected to be 10%, reaching 6,500.
However, these pretentious finance guys who usually wear suits and ties, shake red wine glasses in their hands, and say "buy the dip and sell the tip" are actually quite incompetent 😅😅😅
Why do I say these pretentious finance guys are incompetent?
Let's take a look at these institutions' outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2024 at the end of 2023:
JPMorgan Chase: Bearish, S&P 500 target is 4,200 points in 2024
Morgan Stanley: Neutral, S&P 500 target at 4,500
Goldman Sachs: Neutral, S&P 500 target at 4,700 points
Deutsche Bank and Bank of Montreal: Bullish, S&P 500 target at 5,100
Most investment banks are bearish or neutral. Even the two most bullish institutions only expect the S&P 500 to reach 5,100 points, but by the end of 2024, the S&P reached 6,000 points.
Now these institutions are generally bullish on the US stock market in 2025. Do you still want to believe these losers?
In addition, if we look at 2023-2024, there have been only five times in history when the U.S. stock index rose by 20% for two consecutive years.
Of the four previous times, only one continued to rise in the third year, two others fell sharply, and only one rose by 3% (during which it also experienced a sharp decline).
Whether it is the financial backlash or the historical evidence, it does not indicate that the US stock market will perform well in 2025.
In the financial markets, holding opinions contrary to the majority can sometimes produce unexpected results.
(2) Data support
Someone must have said, do you predict the market by relying on financial indicators and historical data?
Of course not, let’s look at the current situation.
What is the situation now? The Federal Reserve has lowered its expectations for the frequency of interest rate cuts in 2025, the neutral interest rate has risen, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen, and it is continuing to shrink its balance sheet.
Under the condition of low liquidity, it is not enough to continue the US stock market's 20% annual growth in 2023-2024.
(3) One possibility
What we discuss here is a possibility, which is just an idea and may not necessarily occur.
The consensus expectation in the market now is that the United States will not experience a recession, but the events that the market agrees on are often wrong.
Currently, the Federal Reserve has stopped cutting interest rates and reduced the frequency of interest rate cuts in 2025 due to the improvement in economic data in recent months. Is it possible that the cessation of interest rate cuts will rekindle expectations of recession in the future (the economy has transmission and lag)?
This possibility exists, and if so, we will see fireworks in the US stock market in 2025.
If this happens, the script should be: good economic data, few expected rate cuts (falling, happening now) → some data rekindles recession expectations (falling) → the Fed meeting dot plot xi increases the frequency of rate cuts on time (rebound) → rebound → data continues to fall short of expectations (plunge, it is too late to cut interest rates) → rate cuts (continue to fall) → continuous fall → bottoming out (bottom fishing)
Of course, this is just a possibility, and we still need to wait and see what the economic data shows, but if this possibility occurs, I hope you can get a general idea of the trend of the risk market.
So this is why I suggest you follow me. If you don’t follow me, how can you see my operations when the economic data comes out in the future?
(4) Operational suggestions for US stocks/Bitcoin
Bitcoin is essentially a premium and leveraged target for U.S. stocks, so Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are discussed together here.
-The cryptocurrency and U.S. stocks will not see the 2020-2021 bull market alt season and a general rise in small-cap stocks. If it does happen briefly, it should be the last frenzy, and it is necessary to take profits to avoid the risk of falling.
Why? With the current rise in neutral interest rates and continued balance sheet reduction, the market liquidity is not enough to support a general rise in the altcoin season. The market capitalization of the top 10 U.S. stocks has reached its highest point since the Great Depression.
So it is definitely a rotation of hot sectors, a rotation of hot sectors, a rotation of hot sectors!
Unlike in 2024 when people dared to bottom-fish when the U.S. stock market fell by 5%, perhaps in 2025, people will have to wait until the U.S. stock market falls by 8%-10% and is sure that it will not fall into recession before they dare to bottom-fish. Bitcoin will fall by 30%+ in 2025.
In 2025, the decline of the US stock market from top to bottom will not be too severe. After all, Trump is supporting the stock market, but the risk market is difficult to be moved by the will of one person. So I personally expect that the US stock market will end in 2025 between -8% and +8% in 2024.
As for the US stock sector, the banking and Bitcoin sectors can be focused on. I will not recommend the hot sectors in the cryptocurrency circle because the hot spots change too quickly. I will continue to track them.
In short, the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market in 2025 should be a volatile market. We must learn how to trade in waves, how to defend ourselves, and how to go short.
If I really have to make a prediction (but it is difficult to predict accurately because it depends on the macro-economy and market sentiment), I think there should be a selling point in Q1-Q2 of 2025, and then wait for the buying point, and then wait for the selling point to clear the inventory.
2.A-crotch
NMD, my A-shares are a bit painful now, but it doesn't stop me from being bullish on A-shares in 2025. You have to be patriotic, you know?
I think the growth of A-shares in 2025 will be higher than that of US stocks. You may think I am stupid, but it doesn’t matter. Let’s wait and see at the end of the year.
The views above are changing.
Don't listen to what people say on the Internet now that China will repeat the path Japan lost in the past 30 years. I have been surfing the Chinese Internet for so long, and I have never seen something that the Internet public (led by platforms such as TikTok and xhs) recognize and agree with finally come true/correct.
There are still some high-level people on Zhihu who can see the essence, but as long as the audience of Douyin and xhs unanimously agree, 80% of the things will be reversed in the end. After all, the public is stupid.
For example, there was room temperature overshoot in front and jumping in the back, which one would not be reversed?
Here I would like to share a point of view. Chinese young people can only choose the second-best times at best. They cannot choose the best times. If you do not do what most Chinese young people do, you can often avoid many pitfalls, such as buying funds in 2021, or buying a house in 2020-2021.
OK, back to A-shares, let’s first look at the domestic economic situation.
(1) Take a look at the M2 data
Don’t say that Chinese people have no money. The money is just kept in the bank. M2 exceeds 300 trillion, 300 trillion!
You know, my country's GDP is only 130 trillion, what does 300 trillion mean? It is nearly 2.5 times the GDP.
The M2 of the United States is only 23 trillion US dollars, nearly 150 trillion RMB, and China's is twice as high as that of the United States!
So, residents have money but nowhere to spend it, understand?
(2) Treasury bond/Yu’ebao yield, bank interest rate
As of the time I wrote this article, the yield on domestic one-year treasury bonds was 1.125%, two-year bonds was 1.075%, and ten-year bonds was 1.6%.
In the past few months, the yield on government bonds has been falling, and falling. You must know that
The same goes for Yu'e Bao. The yield of Yu'e Bao has reached 1%. It will definitely continue to decline in 2025, and we will see it around 0.7% first.
I am too lazy to talk about bank deposit interest rates, which are getting lower every year.
Therefore, if residents have money but nowhere to spend it, it is not cost-effective to deposit it/buy government bonds, do you understand?
(3) Real estate
I am too lazy to emphasize about House. I think there will be more policies in 2025 to accelerate the bottoming out of house prices in first-tier/new first-tier cities.
If you want to buy a house, wait until 2025 is over and see if the market can stop falling and stabilize to create a golden opportunity.
Of course, what I am referring to here are houses in first-tier cities/new first-tier cities/provincial capital cities. If your house is in third- or fourth-tier cities, especially in third- or fourth-tier cities in the mainland, there is no liquidity, so there is no bottom!
Therefore, it is not a good idea for ordinary people to buy houses with their own money as a way of financial management.
Of course, if you want to buy a house, you can look at the houses in the first-tier/new first-tier cities in 2026
(4) "↑峰没__" (Fill in the blanks yourself)
If you don’t know what “↑峰” means, I can’t tell you clearly (if you know, please don’t tell me in the comments, or I will block you)
In recent years, "↑Feng has not __", everyone should know it, otherwise there would be no offshore fishing and other operations
"↑峰没__", you residents are so rich, don't you make a contribution?
So how can you contribute?
You won’t buy a house, so what else can you do? The stock market.
To be honest, there are no other good investment channels in China except for stock speculation. If you don’t buy house, big funds can’t go out of Bitcoin/US stocks, Ponzi schemes can’t accommodate big funds, and people are too lazy to touch bank deposits with low deposits, so the only ones are A-shares.
What? You said that A-shares would be at 3,000 points for many years, but no one believed that it would go up. Three positive lines would erase the past memory.
In China, there is really no better way to invest and manage money than stocks.
Moreover, the peak can also create a prosperous stock market and solve the problem of "no money in hand".
Don't say that the index has fallen so much since the 9.24 wave. At least tens of trillions have been spent. Which is more important, tens of trillions or hundreds of trillions of M2? What can tens of trillions do?
So, again, long-term investment positions in A-shares (securities, technology ETFs) are all possible.
Of course, all the above investment advice is my personal opinion and I am not responsible for your position.
You need to have your own thinking when judging large positions. My opinions are for your consideration only.
I suggest you follow me, I will call you when I want to buy at the bottom/run away
