2025/01/08 Daily Views

I have been working on quantitative trading these past two days, and I haven't really looked at the market. I started to pay attention to it after the "flash crash" last night.

I said two days ago that it was too fast, I hope you didn't chase high and enter the market, I hope you didn't enter the market with all your money.

In fact, the market originally had no expectations for a rate cut in January, but at this time, Wall Street suddenly lowered its expectations for a rate cut in the first half of 25 years. This move to clean up high-multiple contracts by taking advantage of the news was simply obvious, just to clean up the contracts. The timing was also very good, and the high-multiple contracts that chased high were basically taken away at once.

In fact, the big cake is not bad, it has only fallen by more than 6%, and the cottage is more miserable. A considerable number of weak ones have fallen directly back to the lowest point on the 20th. Some weaker ones, which did not rebound much in the middle, have directly hit new lows. Without sufficient funds, the principle that the weak will always be weak and the strong will always be strong will not change. Don't think that a certain transaction will not fall again just because you think it is oversold. It's not like that. There is no bottom for copycats, just look at rast. . .

It is not possible to confirm that the decline has stopped yet. A double bottom pattern is needed at the 4-hour level. The current price is not certain to be the bottom. Before the positive line can cover the negative line and cover 970~973, it is not possible to confirm that the long position has been restored in the short term. Don't rush to enter the market to buy the bottom.

There is still a big difference between ambushing in advance and being ambushed. . .

The 4-hour bottom is now 944-949. Whether this is the bottom or not, we need to wait and see.

It is still bullish in early January, but the bullishness does not prevent it from plugging in and pulling back. If it oscillates upward slowly, this situation will not occur. But if it pulls too fast, there will definitely be fast plugging in and pulling back in the middle.

Slowly adjust your positions, friends. Those who entered the market at 2, 2, 3, 3 and 3, 3, 4 before can add a little bit of position at this time, but don't fill it up.