On Black Tuesday, the crypto market was bloodbathed again! Bitcoin retreated more than 6%, ETH plummeted 10%, the entire market fell 7%, and the total market value evaporated more than $260 billion!
AICoin (aicoin.com) liquidation data shows that in the past 24 hours, a large number of long orders were liquidated, and the total liquidation in the contract market reached 512 million US dollars, of which ETH liquidation ranked first with 112 million US dollars, followed by BTC with a total liquidation of 96.5 million US dollars. According to tracking, the liquidation occurred mainly at 1 am today, and the largest single liquidation amount reached 17.74 million US dollars, which was a long order of Binance ETH/USDT perpetual, and the bankruptcy price was $3400.54.
According to AICoin analysis, the black hands behind this major drop are:
1. U.S. Treasury yields soar, inflation expectations rise
2. Large investors dumping further exacerbates panic selling
Black Hand One: Out-of-control U.S. Treasury yields, inflation worries resurface
As the day of Trump's official inauguration as President of the United States approaches, concerns about inflation in the bond market begin to rise. Data shows that the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has reached a new 14-month high of 4.919%, nearing the 5% mark; the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries climbed to 4.695% on Tuesday, marking a new high since April of last year.
Additionally, according to the ISM non-manufacturing price index, costs in the U.S. service industry unexpectedly surged, recording 64.4% in December, the highest level since the beginning of 2023.
The decline in U.S. Treasuries, unexpectedly strong macro data, and the potential inflation effects brought about by Trump's administration have reignited market concerns about stubborn inflation and raised investor skepticism regarding the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2025. CME FedWatch data shows that the current rate market basically believes the Federal Reserve will pause rate cuts at the end of the month and bets that rates will remain unchanged in March and May, with the possibility of a 25 basis point cut only in June.
Dark Hand Two: Large investors dump, Coinbase premium turns negative
AICoin's large transaction indicator tracking found that after the U.S. stock market opened last night, large spot traders in Asia began to dump at market prices, with one Binance large trader selling $103 million in BTC and $29.89 million in ETH; OKX main force offloaded $22.08 million in BTC and sold $37.93 million in ETH.
Large transactions: Tracking the main market price transaction situation; when large market sell orders appear densely, it can be seen as a signal of main force dumping. For details, see: https://www.aicoin.com/vip
In addition, the Coinbase BTC and ETH premiums have turned negative, with increased selling pressure in the U.S. market. According to data obtained as of the time of publication, there was a net outflow of over $540 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last night, with GBTC and BITB each experiencing an outflow of over $110 million, and ARKB seeing an outflow of $213 million.
ETF data tracking: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/web3-etf/us-btc?lang=cn
Currently, the bulls' resistance is starting to take effect, with BTC temporarily holding the $96,000 support, but the daily level has already fallen below MA20, so keep an eye on:
• Resistance levels: $97,750, $99,995
• Support levels: $94,220, $92,020
Special reminder: At 21:30 (Singapore time) this Friday, the U.S. Labor Department will release non-farm payroll data, with a focus on new non-farm employment numbers and the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations following the data release. It is almost certain that there will be no rate cut in January, with the focus on rate cut expectations for March and May.
Content is for sharing only, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice!
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