According to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, people believe that the probability of Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve during his first 100 days in office is only 31%, far below the 60% when Trump was elected in early November last year. (Background: Skybridge Capital founder reveals: the Senate will approve the Bitcoin reserve plan! But the chance of purchasing 1 million coins is low) (Additional background: Forbes' bold prediction for 2025: G7 or BRICS may establish Bitcoin reserves, significant growth in BTCFi, and the market value of stablecoins may double) The newly elected U.S. President Trump had promised to establish a Bitcoin reserve in the United States after officially taking office, which has made the entire cryptocurrency community very hopeful. However, just before Trump is set to be officially inaugurated on the 20th of this month, data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket shows that people believe that the probability of Trump establishing a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office is only 31%, far lower than the 60% at the time of his victory in early November last year. Image source: Polymarket. Netizen: The priority is to ensure that Bitcoin is not sold. In response, a netizen commented below this prediction that this is actually very easy to achieve because the U.S. government currently holds a large amount of Bitcoin, and Trump only needs to sign an executive order after taking office to transfer the Bitcoin from the U.S. Department of Justice's wallet to a new wallet and guarantee that it will not be sold. This does not require the U.S. government to immediately spend money to buy Bitcoin, but it represents Trump's determination to establish a Bitcoin reserve. Additionally, Skybridge Capital founder and former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci recently stated in an interview with Bankless Podcast that the U.S. government plans to purchase Bitcoin on a large scale, potentially up to 500,000 Bitcoins, which will be reviewed by the Senate. Scaramucci's core argument for establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve is to compare it with gold. The U.S. currently has about $600 billion in gold reserves, and he believes that even if a small portion is converted to Bitcoin or some gold reserves are sold, it can strengthen the U.S. economy in the digital transformation era. However, some experts believe it is not that simple. From the perspective of U.S. executive orders or legislative processes, if Trump wants to implement the Bitcoin strategic reserve, he needs to immediately have the cryptocurrency committee conduct policy research and feasibility assessments after taking office, formally propose a plan once completed, and then follow two paths: Path One: Presidential Executive Order (Earliest in the second half of 2025). Directly issuing an executive order after taking office is the quickest path because it can bypass resistance from conservative and opposing forces such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and Congress, and also reference the draft provided by the 'Bitcoin Policy Institute', instructing the U.S. Treasury to directly allocate Bitcoin using the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). However, although this method is quick and convenient, it also has side effects. The Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund does not require congressional approval but can be investigated and legislated by Congress. Executive orders can also be overturned and modified by the next president, so their sustainability and stability are not as good as legislation. Path Two: Congressional Legislation (Earliest in the second half of 2026). If a more stable legislative path is taken, it will require a longer process. After undergoing policy research and feasibility assessments by the cryptocurrency committee, the bill needs to be submitted to Congress and reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee, then go through the Senate, House of Representatives, and be signed by the president before it can be officially completed. This process may experience various back-and-forth and is relatively complex, as many conservative members will definitely raise objections and obstruct progress. Therefore, although this path can achieve a lasting and stable bill, it will take a long time, likely not until the second half of 2026 or 2027. Recently, there has been news that the cryptocurrency industry is pushing Trump's team to release an executive order on the first day of his inauguration next month, to initiate his promised cryptocurrency policy reforms and help promote the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies. If passed through an executive order, we may see the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve as early as the middle of 2025. Czech Republic Considers Establishing Bitcoin Reserves. With Trump's proposal to establish Bitcoin reserves, officials in Japan, Russia, and Europe have begun discussing this possibility. A well-known U.S. business magazine (Forbes) previously boldly predicted that in 2025, the G7 or BRICS countries may establish Bitcoin reserves, triggering a global Bitcoin reserve competition, aligning Bitcoin's status with gold, foreign exchange reserves, and sovereign bonds. Just yesterday (7th), Czech National Bank President Aleš Michl stated in an interview with CNN that they are currently considering incorporating Bitcoin into the national foreign exchange reserve diversification portfolio, and the government's interest in cryptocurrencies is also increasing. However, the Czech National Bank currently has no plans to immediately purchase crypto assets, and whether to approve and implement this plan will still depend on a vote by board members. Related reports: Will Japan establish Bitcoin reserves? Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: Currently lacking sufficient information, with safety and liquidity as the primary considerations. Michael Saylor proposes a digital asset framework: using Bitcoin reserves to offset U.S. national debt! CryptoQuant claims it is feasible but challenging. The U.S. has difficulty establishing Bitcoin reserves! Experts say the Federal Reserve is currently losing $1 billion per week and has no money to buy BTC. 'The probability of establishing a Bitcoin reserve within Trump's first 100 days in office has dropped to 31%, with two possible paths' This article was first published on BlockTempo (the most influential blockchain news media).

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