1. CURRENT ANALYSIS
Price Index:
- Current price: $3,382.28
- 24h change: -14.57% (Strong drop)
- Volatility: 6.11% (High)
Technical Analysis:
- MA trend: MA7 < MA14 < MA20 (Short-term downtrend)
- RSI: Currently in neutral zone
- MACD: 185.66 with Signal line 124.55 (Positive short-term signal)
- Bollinger Bands: Price is approaching the lower Band (Near support)
Market Pressure:
- Buy Pressure: 1.07 (Light buying pressure)
- Order Book Imbalance: 3.42% (Slight imbalance)
- Average Trade Size: 0.13 ETH (Retail trades dominate)
- Buy Volume Ratio: 56.03% (Buying volume dominates)
2. 24H FORECAST
Main Scenario (60% probability):
- Sideway Down (Moving sideways with a downtrend)
- Price range: $3,200 - $3,500
- Important levels:
+ Strong resistance: $3,550
+ Important support: $3,200
+ Stop loss zone: $3,150
Signals to watch:
- Volume spikes at around $3,200
- RSI oversold (below 30)
- MACD crosses Signal line from below
- Order book imbalance increases over 5%
3. TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS
Spot Strategy:
- Entry Points:
* 40% at $3,380 (current price)
* 30% at $3,300
* 30% at $3,200
- Stop Loss: $3,150 (-6.8%)
- Take Profits:
* TP1: $3,550 (+5%)
* TP2: $3,700 (+9.5%)
* TP3: $3,850 (+14%)
Future Strategy:
- DO NOT recommend entering Future orders due to:
* High volatility (6.11%)
* Unclear trend
* Selling pressure from the spot market remains high
Risk Management:
- Maximum capital/order: 2% portfolio
- Total capital for the order set: 5% portfolio
- Cut losses immediately when the price hits stop loss
- No averaging down when the downtrend is strong
4. SPECIAL NOTES
Factors to watch:
- Bitcoin volatility (can have a strong impact)
- Trading volume at support/resistance levels
- News about the Ethereum ecosystem
- Selling pressure from miners and whales
Main risks:
- High market volatility
- Liquidity may drop suddenly
- Strong break potential through support levels
- Selling pressure from large addresses
5. LONG-TERM STRATEGY
DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging):
- Split the buy order over 2 weeks
- Focus on buying at support levels
- Increase position size when a strong reversal signal appears
- Keep some cash to deal with volatility