Author: Revc
The AI Agent track has recently attracted a large number of investors due to extreme volatility, and its high return potential creates a unique trading experience. MEME trading stimulates excitement and addiction through 'roller coaster-like jumps' in balances, releasing dopamine that is both thrilling and addictive, putting investors to the test on psychological and emotional levels.
For investors, while enjoying the profits brought by market volatility, it is crucial to be wary of the addiction to emotional trading. By deeply researching the long-term value and technical potential of projects, one can find more robust investment directions amidst volatility. The market requires both rationality and passion, rather than being dominated by a single stimulus.
Currently, the selection of MEME projects follows two lines, 'speculation' and value discovery. This article analyzes high-frequency 'speculative' operational methods, revealing how professional MEME creators consume investors' energy and principal.
1 Hour 15x Case
Taking the MEME token Agora as an example, investors initially judge that the project has upward potential and then engage in scalping trading for arbitrage. Multiple scalps cause the investor's principal to double quickly, and this is just the beginning. After the penultimate buy, Agora quickly rises to a 15x increase within 30 minutes. Due to the absence of stop-loss and take-profit features on the web trading interface, the actual profits are far from 15 times, yet the stimulus from the 15x increase traps investors in a cycle of continued speculation, ultimately leading to substantial losses amidst volatility.
PS: Scalping is a high-frequency trading strategy where traders profit by capturing short-term price fluctuations in stocks, futures, or other financial instruments. The core idea of scalping is to quickly enter and exit trades to capitalize on short-term market movements, gaining small profits on each trade but accumulating earnings through multiple trades.
30 seconds of analysis leads to a strategy that reduces principal to zero in 10 minutes.
MEME trading is a high-intensity game of information capture and rapid execution, and PVP trading has evolved a structured indicator system for project screening. In this mode, analysis and execution phases are extremely compressed, usually only taking a few minutes to complete, especially when a project's market cap just reaches N times the internal market cap (about $68,000). At this point, N is usually less than 10, meaning the market cap is under $600,000, with intense market competition. However, once the project peaks and falls back, such new listings are often quickly abandoned by investors, leading to a sharp drop in interest.
1. Project Judgment and Selection: In the new project page, sort by launch time; at this point, projects usually feature trading volumes 3-5 times their market cap, with blue chip indices in the range of 0-1.2%. During rapid filtering on the first page, one can focus on indicators such as fast growth in address numbers, low market cap (to avoid selecting projects with market caps reaching tens of millions), and projects that have not experienced sharp pullbacks within 1-5 minutes and are continuously setting new highs.
2. Release Time: 30 minutes is usually a critical dividing line; most projects start showing signs of crashing and collecting profits about 30 minutes after release (data collected around 6 PM Beijing time).
3. Market Capitalization Size: Projects with a market cap of around $300,000 are usually quite reasonable, while those reaching the tens of millions of dollars may carry a higher risk of exit.
4. Exit Risk: The GMGN platform will label the developer's operational records in historical projects, such as withdrawing liquidity, crashing the market, or running away, among other situations. These markers are important indicators for assessing project stability.
5. Blue Chip Index: As a growth indicator, the blue chip index reflects investors' purchasing power and community consensus by analyzing the holdings of blue chip tokens, providing a side reference for assessing project health.
6. Order Book Health Indicator (X = Trading Volume / Market Cap): Typically, in the early stages of a project, the X value approaches 2, then shows a downward-opening parabolic trend. When the parabola peaks, trading volume reaches new highs, and market cap approaches cyclical peaks, indicating that PVP trading activity has peaked. After that, trading volume declines, market cap decreases, and 'smart money' begins to withdraw.
Moreover, trading volume can provide a preliminary judgment on tokens. For instance, a single trade amount reaching a new high may indicate the entry of large funds, which is positive for the market. However, many trading platforms currently do not provide trends for single trade amounts or statistics on trading frequency; relying solely on trading volume data may not be sufficient for a comprehensive analysis of market dynamics.
7. Marked Traders: Usually the leading MEME communities and DEX platforms reflect whether the promotion has covered mainstream communities, but such addresses typically withdraw liquidity quickly.
8. TOP10 Address Indicator: This indicator is used to analyze the top ten addresses by token holdings, indicating their holdings as a percentage of the total supply. Generally, a holding ratio of less than 20% for the top ten addresses is considered healthy, indicating a more decentralized token distribution, strong community consensus, and relatively low selling risk.
9. Profit Expectation Formula: As a token's market cap grows from $300,000 to $3 million, its success rate is often very low. Investors usually invest 1-10 SOL in a single project, but excessive liquidity addition may lead to a price explosion, triggering the greed of holders and quick profit-taking. For example, assuming an investor's project success rate is P=10%, and funds go to zero on failure, then according to 1/P=10, a single project would need to achieve a 1000% return to break even. In this case, projects with market caps in the hundreds of thousands of dollars resemble a probability game.
10. New Coin Priority Strategy: As the framework for filtering and analyzing MEME tokens matures, creators often prefer to issue new tokens, making it easier to manipulate relevant indicators. This new coin issuance model not only caters to the market's preference for 'innovation' but also increases the possibility of attracting capital inflows in the short term.
11. Same Concept, Prefer Base: Taking the recent Percy concept promoted by Musk as an example, the performance of the Base network significantly outpaces that of Solana. This is because the users on the Base network are primarily seasoned DeFi users, whose purchasing power is typically 3-4 times that of Solana users. Additionally, trades on Base more frequently see whale entries, further enhancing its market performance and liquidity.
12. Doubling Out Strategy: Since PVP is a high-frequency and high-risk trading model, users are easily affected by emotional fluctuations during the process. The 'Doubling Out' strategy is a relatively scientific method with less psychological burden. By recovering the initial investment after profits have doubled, investors can more easily hold the remaining assets for the long term, freeing themselves from the pressures and troubles caused by short-term emotional fluctuations.
13. Motivation Analysis for Pool Adjustments: In medium to large projects, investors usually pair tokens with SOL for trading in Raydium liquidity pools to achieve up to 999.99% 24-hour APR. The core essence of DeFi is shorting volatility, and when paired assets exhibit unilateral trends, liquidity providers may face impermanent loss. When investors increase liquidity pool assets, it typically indicates their optimism for the corresponding asset in the short term, though the extent may be limited, reflecting signals of short-term consolidation. Conversely, when investors reduce pool assets, it often indicates a bearish stance towards a specific asset, possibly accompanied by selling or readjusting asset exchange ratios.
14. Observation of New Address Movements: Regular market making is considered a dangerous signal, such as large amounts of money counter-trading. One can also study the trading habits of developer addresses.
By understanding the methods above and conducting a preliminary analysis of internal projects, congratulations! You are about to fall into the trap of professional MEME traders, who will create a perfect MEME on the indicators that align with your project analysis and selection framework, subsequently crafting a storyline with AI + founder interaction + hackathon, combined with the emotional fluctuations brought by high-frequency trading, leading to a rapid loss of judgment regarding the project. Trading discipline is broken, resulting in losses. Therefore, this article serves as a 'MEME addiction recovery article.' Regardless of where investors learn about the 'wealth code,' information asymmetry still exists because PVP must have someone to take over. Therefore, new Web3 users should avoid getting addicted to the MEME track and gradually cultivate the ability for value discovery.
For framework-type AI Agent projects, one can focus on the Forks page in the GitHub repository to see which projects have referenced Eliza's code. However, even so, it is crucial to carefully evaluate the project's development progress and actual potential to avoid blindly following trends.
The final MEME shock suggestion - arrange your time wisely and take breaks!
Summary
MEME trading is not only a test of innovation and risk tolerance but also fully showcases the potential of cutting-edge concepts like AI Agents in technological breakthroughs and decentralized narratives. This type of high-volatility market offers quick profit opportunities for keen investors while also driving exploration and development in blockchain technology, token economic models, and AI application scenarios. Investors in this environment need to continually optimize their real-time decision-making abilities and market adaptability to find advantageous strategies and apply them in a high-risk market.
However, the high-frequency volatility of the MEME market also contains significant risks. Sharp price fluctuations can easily trigger emotional trading, causing investors to fall into a cycle of 'blind speculation.' The dopamine rush from short-term gains may lead one to overlook the logic of long-term value investing, while an over-reliance on short-term trading often results in substantial losses of principal. Particularly for projects lacking solid technical support or real application scenarios, they can easily become mere speculative tools after the hype fades, resulting in significant losses for investors. Such losses not only undermine personal investment confidence but may also negatively impact the healthy development of the entire crypto industry, further exacerbating market instability.
For investors, rationality and a long-term perspective are particularly important. When participating in MEME trading, one should combine technical analysis and project value exploration to avoid being swept away by short-term fluctuations. Only by finding a balance between risk and return can one achieve true sustainable profits in this highly volatile market.
