Today's Market Overview
#Macro Analysis
1. Dollar Index**:
The dollar index recently hit a two-year high, indicating that there is still uncertainty regarding market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The strength of the dollar has exerted some pressure on global markets, especially on precious metals, such as gold, which has seen its price suppressed.
2. Precious Metals Trends**:
Precious metals like gold are relatively weak under the high dollar index, and although there has been a slight rebound recently, overall they remain in a state of fluctuation.
3. US Stock Market Sentiment**:
Although sentiment in the US stock market remains relatively positive, the market is still cautious regarding changes in Federal Reserve policy. The high levels in the US stock market also indicate some supply pressure.
#Structural Analysis
1. High-Level Consolidation**:
The market is currently in a state of high-level consolidation, with the upper range at 100,000 points and the lower range around 90,000 points. This consolidation has lasted for two months, and every breakout requires substantial volume support, but is often suppressed by larger supply volumes.
2. Difficulty of Trend Change**:
To achieve a trend change, significant volume support is needed. The current market's sluggish sentiment makes it challenging to directly reverse and initiate a trending market.
#Momentum Analysis
1. **Momentum Performance**:
The momentum of this round of rebound is relatively weak, with divergence occurring in smaller timeframes. Divergence does not necessarily indicate a decline, but it suggests that the market is not strong enough; if divergence occurs again, prices may further decline.
#Summary and Operational Recommendations
- High-Level Consolidation**:
Currently, the market is in a state of high-level consolidation, it is recommended not to chase highs or cut losses, but to adopt a perspective of buying low and selling high during fluctuations.
- Key Points**: The key support levels below are at 96,800, 92,000, and 86,000.
- Operational Recommendations**:
- Aggressive Bearish Strategy**: Current prices can be used to set up short positions, but if the 4-hour level stabilizes above 102,700, then exit and observe.
- Conservative Bearish Strategy**: If the 4-hour level closes below 102,000, a short position can be entered, targeting around 96,800.
- Bullish Strategy**: If a rebound stabilizes after a pullback to 96,000-96,500, and the 4-hour level does not close below 96,000, a long position can be entered.
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