#本轮牛市周期预期

On the path of trading, "knowing" is merely a realm of intelligence and understanding, and the distance from "knowing" to "understanding" can sometimes be miles apart or just a piece of paper away. To truly elevate to the level of "understanding," in my case, all requires one’s own successes and failures, without relying on any external forces.

"Go with the flow" is a well-known trading maxim, and I naturally "knew" this since the beginning of my career. However, to truly comprehend its profound meaning, to understand, deeply believe, and consistently execute it, came only after suffering significant setbacks.

Why is that? Simply because I have always foolishly thought of myself as too clever.

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For a long time before, I often considered myself smarter than average, even smarter than the market, due to my numerous experiences of almost perfect analyses and predictions of various types.

Thus, amidst most trades that followed the trend, there were occasionally contrarian moves. The reason was not to seek attention or to appear unique, but rather a foolish belief that I could achieve it. This is the difference between "knowing" and "understanding."

The result was that, due to emotional decisions overcoming rationality, the lack of disciplined protection in contrarian operations led the market to bring you back to your true self.

Just "knowing," not "understanding"; even if you dodge it this time, there will always be a time you cannot escape, and the final outcome will not change, only the timing will differ. 🥲🥲🥲