In the first complete trading week of 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) once again broke through the symbolic $100,000 barrier, continuing the rebound trend that began at the start of the new year. However, in the bullish market atmosphere, analysts remind investors not to have excessive expectations of a "surge like last year"; the Fed's January meeting decision will be key to the future market direction and may trigger significant market volatility.

CoinGecko market data shows that after Bitcoin surged past $99,000 last night (6th), it continued to rise sharply, reaching a peak of $102,512, the highest level since December 19 of last year, with a single-day increase of up to 4.3%.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin's rally has somewhat subsided, reporting $101,738, having risen 2.6% in the past 24 hours; Ether has slightly increased by 0.5% to $3,685; BNB rose by 2.3% to $728.93; and Solana (SOL) increased by 0.7% to $217.42.

Funds are flowing back, and the cryptocurrency market is heating up again.

Looking back at the end of last year, Bitcoin experienced a pullback after the surge brought on by Trump's victory, coinciding with year-end profit-taking selling pressure, and with the market quiet during the Christmas and New Year holidays, Bitcoin and Ether spot ETFs faced a wave of withdrawals, causing Bitcoin prices to drop to a low of $91,000, down nearly 15% from historical highs.

Now that the holiday season has ended, investors and traders are gradually returning, and news of companies significantly increasing their Bitcoin investments continues to emerge, further boosting market sentiment.

At the beginning of the new year, MicroStrategy was the first to announce the purchase of an additional 1,020 Bitcoins; Texas energy management company KULR Technology Group also announced an investment of $21 million to buy Bitcoin.

On the other hand, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $908 million last Friday, indicating that market demand is recovering.

At the same time, the number of open contracts in the Bitcoin futures market is significantly lower than mid-December of last year, indicating that the recent price rebound is mainly driven by spot buying rather than leveraged trading.

According to observations by CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten, the funding rate in the futures market remains at a "neutral level," indicating that this rebound in Bitcoin is not accompanied by "excessive speculation".

Fed policy becomes the biggest variable, and Bitcoin prices still face challenges in the short term.

Senior Director of cryptocurrency trading company Wincent, Paul Howard, stated:

After experiencing institutional adjustments to balance sheets and pre-holiday risk-off strategies at the end of last year, the price rise and demand recovery at the beginning of the new year is inevitable. We expect that 2025 will be a very optimistic year for cryptocurrency assets and the new government.

However, Paul Howard also warned: "While it is exciting that Bitcoin has returned to $100,000, the current price level should not be overinterpreted; market conditions may become more volatile in the next two weeks."

Cryptocurrency analysis firm 10x Research also mentioned in its latest report that the cryptocurrency market may continue its rebound trend in early January, especially as Trump's inauguration approaches, but heavy selling pressure may be faced before the Federal Reserve (Fed) holds its interest rate policy meeting at the end of the month.

In December last year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's tough rhetoric put pressure on the market. 10x Research pointed out that even if inflation cools further in the coming months, the Fed may not shift as quickly as the market expects, which could bring short-term volatility risks to the market.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated: "The Fed's policy statements remain a key variable affecting the market, especially when inflation issues resurface; this impact will be even more pronounced. We expect inflationary pressures to continue easing this year, but the Fed may need more time to respond to this shift." He further added:

Although the market atmosphere at the beginning of the year is relatively optimistic, investors are advised not to overly expect a surge like that of January to March and September to December 2024.