Just stepping into 2025, Bitcoin has once again broken through the $100,000 mark, and the market seems to be warming up amid fluctuations.
On the evening of January 6, around 10 PM, Bitcoin's price broke through $100,000 and is now hovering around $102,000. Ethereum also quickly rebounded, breaking through $3,600. With continuous positive news coming in, Bitcoin's daily line has closed bullish for seven consecutive days, and the market seems to be becoming more optimistic. What exactly has happened in the market?
Bitcoin's overall market data shows good performance.
Bitcoin spot ETF data is an important indicator of the inflow of off-exchange funds. Looking back at December, SoSoValue's data showed continuous fund inflows in the first half of the month, but the second half performed poorly. Entering January, Bitcoin spot ETF has once again achieved net inflows, with its total asset net value reaching $111.46 billion, and the net asset ratio of the ETF (the ratio of market value relative to the total market value of Bitcoin) reaching 5.72%, with a historical cumulative net inflow of $35.91 billion.
Major institutions are increasing their Bitcoin holdings.
On January 3, MicroStrategy officially announced plans to raise $2 billion through issuing preferred shares to purchase more Bitcoin, providing new momentum for Bitcoin buying. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley also mentioned: 'According to HODL15Capital's statistics, 11 publicly traded companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings since last Monday. In 2025, a large number of companies are expected to join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has already scripted this movement.'
Currently, MicroStrategy has been increasing its Bitcoin holdings for nine consecutive weeks. On January 6, they purchased 1,070 Bitcoins for approximately $101 million, with an average price of $94,004. Now, MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin holdings have reached 447,470 Bitcoins, with a total value of around $44.3 billion.
According to Bitcoin mining company MARA Digital, it will continue to increase its Bitcoin holdings on the balance sheet in 2025, currently holding about 44,000 Bitcoins worth over $4 billion. Additionally, the U.S. listed company KULR is also continuously increasing its holdings, currently holding 430.61 Bitcoins, of which 213.43 were recently acquired.
Japanese company Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 by 2025, aiming to expand its influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Additionally, El Salvador has not missed this wave of accumulation. According to Cointelegraph, El Salvador has added 5 Bitcoins since the New Year, bringing its total holdings to 6,009 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $595 million. Major institutions globally are increasing their Bitcoin purchases, boosting the buying power of Bitcoin in the market.
The Trump-themed Memecoin surge, along with the recovery of the altcoin market.
Since Trump's successful election in early November, the market has seen a month-long sustained rally. On January 7, the U.S. Congress officially confirmed Trump's election as president, just a step away from taking office. Crypto projects and tokens related to Trump have once again become the market focus.
The Trump-related Memecoin TRUMP has risen for three consecutive days since January 4, with an increase of over 80%; similarly, other Memecoins like MAGA and TRUMPCOIN have seen nearly 100% increases, although there was a pullback yesterday. However, the family projects related to Trump, such as World Liberty Financial, have not seen significant gains in tokens like LINK, AAVE, ENA, and COW.
Trump's crypto-friendly stance has become a major driving force behind the recent market optimism. However, according to Reuters, Angeles Investments' Chief Investment Officer Michael Rosen believes that Trump's inauguration may bring some unexpected surprises, anticipating that he will issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering various fields such as immigration, energy, and cryptocurrency, which may bring more volatility to the market.
Currently, the sentiment in the crypto market has turned more optimistic, and the altcoin sector is still recovering. According to Alternative.me data, the 'Fear and Greed Index' for cryptocurrencies has gradually rebounded since January, now exceeding 70, and even reaching 78 today, signaling that the market has entered a state of 'extreme greed'.
Bitcoin continues to perform strongly, but the performance of altcoins shows mixed results. In the past 24 hours, the public chain sector's Solana (SOL) broke through 220 USDT again, rising, while Avalanche (AVAX) rose about 6%, but the gains of other public chains have stagnated. SUI retreated to 5 USDT after reaching a new high, and TON fluctuated around 5.7 USDT.
Some sectors in the Ethereum ecosystem have also experienced short-term pullbacks. EIGEN slightly declined after three consecutive days of gains, Lido (LDO) dropped about 3%, ENA experienced around a 10% pullback, and Optimism (OP) and Arbitrum (ARB) also saw slight declines after five consecutive days of increases.
The tech spring festival CES kicks off, and the AI concept receives positive news again.
Dubbed the 'Spring Festival of the Tech World', CES 2025 (International Consumer Electronics Show) will be held in Las Vegas, USA from January 7 to 11, featuring many tech giants such as Nvidia, AMD, Toyota, Samsung, etc., unveiling their latest consumer products and strategic plans.
During the exhibition, U.S. stocks performed strongly, with the Dow Jones rising by more than 380 points at its peak, the Nasdaq rose by 2% before pulling back, and the chip index rose by over 4%. The 'Tech Seven Sisters' generally rose, with Meta (Metaverse) up 4.23%, Nvidia up 3.43%, Google A up 2.65%, Amazon up 1.53%, Microsoft up 1.06%, Apple up 0.67%, and Tesla up 0.15%.
As Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is set to deliver the opening speech on January 7, Nvidia's stock price has risen for three consecutive days, reaching a new high. Market news suggests that Huang may announce the next generation of GeForce RTX50 series graphics cards, including models like RTX5090, 5080, and 5060 during his speech.
AI-related cryptocurrencies in the crypto market are experiencing a broad increase.
With the CES exhibition taking place, the AI concept has once again become the focus, and AI-related application coins in the crypto market have generally risen. WLD has increased by over 10% in 24 hours, RENDER has risen by 8%, and IOTA has also seen a 6% increase. Besides a few coins like VIRTUAL, ZEREBRO, and FARTCOIN which experienced slight declines, most other AI-related tokens performed well.
The market value of SWARMS is close to $500 million, with an increase of over 80%, while AI16Z has risen over 25%, reaching $2.25 USDT. Tokens like GRIFFAIN and ARC have also risen over 20%, and AIXBT has rebounded above $0.55 USDT.
Overall, with the demonstrations from tech giants and the resurgence of AI concepts, AI-related projects in the crypto market have seen a strong uptick, and market sentiment is gradually becoming more positive.
Analysts' views on Bitcoin and the crypto market
In early February 2024, Markus Thielen, founder and research director of 10X Research, suggested that Bitcoin tends to rise by about 11% around the Lunar New Year. Based on data from the past nine years, traders who buy Bitcoin three days before the Lunar New Year and sell it ten days after typically realize considerable profits. Considering that the 2025 Spring Festival is ahead to January 29, this suggests that the market may show positive performance in January, warranting investor attention.
Ledn's Chief Investment Officer John Glover believes that Bitcoin may pull back to $89,000 in the short term but will rebound thereafter, expecting it to reach $125,000 by the end of the first quarter, and possibly challenge $160,000 by the end of this year or early next year. His view indicates that despite potential pullbacks, the overall upward trend remains strong.
A report released by Bitfinex maintains an optimistic outlook, noting that while there may be a deeper pullback in the first quarter, miners' bullish sentiment and overall supply tightening indicate that Bitcoin has good upward potential in the medium term. The report points out that selling pressure from miners, long-term holders, and other market participants has significantly eased, with the circulating supply of Bitcoin in the market decreasing, helping to alleviate recent pullback pressure.
Bernstein analysts released ten predictions for the crypto industry in 2025, indicating that the crypto industry will enter an 'infinite era', with a price target for Bitcoin set at $200,000. Additionally, the stablecoin market is expected to exceed $50 billion by 2025, while net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs will exceed $70 billion. The integration of cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence is also expected to deepen further, reflecting strong optimism for the crypto market.
However, some analysts maintain a cautious attitude towards market trends.
QCP believes that a large-scale short squeeze is unlikely to occur in the short term, and market catalysts related to Trump may not manifest until after the presidential inauguration on January 20, meaning the market may remain in a state of consolidation before then.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest blog (Sasa) that he believes the crypto market may peak around mid-March and then experience a severe pullback. He advises investors to consider selling in the later part of the first quarter and wait for improved liquidity conditions in the third quarter to re-enter the market.
