Just stepping into 2025, Bitcoin has once again broken through the 100,000 dollar mark, and the market seems to gradually warm up amid fluctuations.
Around 10 PM on January 6, the price of BTC rose above 100,000 dollars, currently hovering around 102,000 dollars. ETH also quickly rebounded, breaking through 3,600 dollars. With constant positive news, BTC's daily price has closed up for seven consecutive days, and the market seems to be gradually becoming optimistic. What is happening in the market?
BTC market data is looking good
Data from Bitcoin spot ETFs is one of the important reference indicators for observing the inflow of off-market funds. Looking back at December, according to SoSoValue data, there was a continuous positive inflow in the first half of the month, while the performance in the second half was not satisfactory. Since entering January, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow again, with a total net asset value reaching 111.46 billion dollars, and the ETF net asset ratio (the market value relative to Bitcoin's total market value) reaching 5.72%, with a historical cumulative net inflow of 35.91 billion dollars.
Various institutions are increasing BTC holdings
On January 3, according to MicroStrategy's official news, it plans to raise 2 billion dollars in the first quarter through the issuance of preferred shares to buy more BTC. This lays the foundation for increased BTC buying power. According to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, 'According to HODL15Capital statistics, since last Monday, 11 listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin. In 2025, a large number of companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a movement.'
MicroStrategy has now purchased Bitcoin for nine consecutive weeks. On January 6, it increased its holdings by 1,070 BTC for approximately 101 million dollars, with an average price of 94,004 dollars, bringing its total holdings to 447,470 BTC, valued at around 44.3 billion dollars.
According to Bitcoin mining company MARA Digital, it will continue to increase its Bitcoin holdings in 2025, with current holdings of about 44,000 BTC, valued at over 4 billion dollars. The U.S. listed company KULR has currently increased its holdings by 213.43 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 430.61 BTC.
Japanese company Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by 2025 to expand its influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem.
According to Cointelegraph, El Salvador has also increased its holdings by 5 BTC since the beginning of the year, bringing its total holdings to 6009 BTC, valued at approximately 595 million dollars. Major institutions worldwide are also increasing their BTC holdings, and buying power for BTC is continuously rising.
Trump Concept Memecoin has seen an increase, and the altcoin sector continues to warm up.
Since Trump's successful election in early November, the market has experienced a continuous rise for a month. In the early hours of January 7, the U.S. Congress officially confirmed Trump's election as president, and with his inauguration imminent, related crypto projects and tokens are once again attracting attention.
Trump Concept Memecoin TRUMP has continued to rise for three consecutive days since January 4, with an increase of over 80%; Memecoins like MAGA and TRUMPCOIN have also seen nearly 100% gains, although there was a slight pullback yesterday. However, the family project World Liberty Financial's holdings in tokens such as LINK, AAVE, ENA, and COW have not shown significant increases.
Trump's crypto-friendly attitude is a significant factor contributing to the recent optimism in the market. However, according to Reuters, Angeles Investments Chief Investment Officer Michael Rosen stated that Trump's inauguration may also bring some surprises to the market, as he is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and cryptocurrency policies.
The current sentiment in the crypto market has entered a relatively optimistic state, with altcoins continuing to recover. According to Alternative.me data, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has gradually risen above 70 since January, and today the index reached 78, indicating a shift to an 'extreme greed state.'
Compared to Bitcoin's soaring momentum, altcoins have shown mixed performance. In the 24-hour price changes, the public chain sector SOL has once again broken through 220 USDT to achieve gains, while AVAX has seen an increase of about 6%. Other public chains have stagnated, with SUI retreating to 5 USDT after reaching a new high, and TON fluctuating around 5.7 USDT.
The Ethereum ecosystem, including DeFi, restaking, L2, and stablecoins, has also seen a short-term pullback, with EIGEN experiencing a small decline after rising for three consecutive days, LDO dropping about 3%, and ENA experiencing a significant pullback of around 10%. OP, ARB, and others have also seen slight declines after closing up for five consecutive days.
The Tech Spring Festival CES is held, and the AI concept receives more positive news.
The 'Spring Festival of the Tech World', CES 2025 (International Consumer Electronics Show) will kick off in Las Vegas, USA from January 7 to January 11. During the event, tech giants like NVIDIA, AMD, Toyota, and Samsung will showcase their latest products and strategic plans for consumers.
In this context, on January 6, U.S. stocks showed a positive trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 380 points, and the NASDAQ rising 2% before retreating. The chip index also rose over 4%. The 'Tech Seven Sisters' all saw gains, with Meta rising 4.23%, NVIDIA up 3.43%, Google A up 2.65%, Amazon up 1.53%, Microsoft up 1.06%, Apple up 0.67%, and Tesla up 0.15%.
With NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang set to give the opening speech on January 7, NVIDIA's stock price has risen for three consecutive days to reach a new high. According to market news, Huang may officially announce the new generation GeForce RTX50 series graphics cards during his speech, including RTX5090, 5080, and 5060.
In the crypto market, AI application coins are broadly rising, and AI Memecoins continue their upward trend. WLD has risen over 10% in 24 hours, RENDER has increased by 8%, and IOTA has risen by 6%. In the last 24 hours, except for a few slight declines in VIRTUAL, ZEREBRO, FARTCOIN, and others, the rest have all achieved gains. SWARMS is approaching a market value of 500 million, achieving over 80% growth. AI16Z reached 2.25 USDT, with an increase of over 25%. GRIFFAIN, ARC, and others have all risen over 20%, and AIXBT has also rebounded to above 0.55 USDT.
How analysts view this
In early February 2024, 10X Research founder and research director Markus Thielen stated, 'Bitcoin often rises by 11% around the Lunar New Year.' Over the past nine years, traders who bought Bitcoin three days before the Lunar New Year and sold it ten days after have achieved good returns. The 2025 Spring Festival falls on January 29, earlier than previous years, and market performance is worth looking forward to.
Ledn's Chief Investment Officer John Glover stated that Bitcoin might pull back to 89,000 dollars before rebounding, reaching 125,000 dollars by the end of the first quarter and potentially hitting 160,000 dollars by the end of this year or early next year.
Bitfinex released a report stating, 'We see that the market remains strong. Although there may be a deeper correction in the first quarter of 2025, the bullish sentiment among miners and the overall tightening of supply indicate that Bitcoin has good upside potential in the medium term. The overall selling pressure from miners, long-term holders, and other groups has significantly eased. The supply entering circulation in the market has reduced, alleviating the impact of the recent pullback.'
Bernstein analysts released ten predictions for the crypto industry in 2025, stating that 'the crypto industry will enter an 'infinity era', with a Bitcoin price target of 200,000 dollars, the stablecoin market size surpassing 500 billion dollars, and net inflow funds for spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeding 70 billion dollars, while the integration of crypto and artificial intelligence will deepen further.'
However, some analysts have also expressed concerns about the market.
QCP stated, 'We do not expect a large-scale short squeeze in the short term; the catalysts related to Trump may only appear after the inauguration on January 20.'
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in a latest blog post (Sasa) that he believes the crypto market will peak in mid-March and then experience a severe pullback. He advises investors to sell in the later part of the first quarter and wait for improved liquidity conditions in the third quarter.
