Author: Tomb
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Key points of this post
Reviewing the dynamics of agents and AI over the past few months;
Reviewing some obvious investment opportunities in the market;
During the New Year, I took a short break and observed many things from an outsider's perspective, reflecting deeply on past successes and failures;
Next, I will try to clearly share all my thoughts;
Reviewing the dynamics of agents and AI over the past few months
AI Agent Review
Very satisfied with the performance at the end of last year.
From September to early October, we entered many narratives about AI, agents, and infrastructure (Infra) very early.
Without overly complicating the analysis of these trends, it is clear that these are the next phase of the AI supercycle (more important catalysts will come in the future).
This mature judgment comes from long experience capturing narratives in the market. When you can identify these trends, you can quickly invest without excessive hesitation.
Even now, I still see some people debating irrelevant issues like the packaging applications of ChatGPT, specific functionalities of an agent, or delayed responses from a protocol.
But are these really important? Our purpose here is to make money, not to prove ourselves right.
The key is to be clear about which stage of the market cycle you are in. Each cycle has its unique rules and strategies.
This is also why many people hold onto old projects for too long, missing out on some 'simple model' hot trends. What I mean by 'old' is not truly old, but rather 'relatively old' compared to the fast-paced development of the industry.
Remember, new hotspots appear every day, and the speed of capital flow will become faster and faster - if the team cannot clearly communicate their ideas or demonstrate a clear roadmap, capital will flow to those protocols that have stronger communication skills and can quickly implement projects.
When I first encountered Goat, I realized its potential and paid attention to it very early - what surprised me is that others took so long to migrate to Base through cross-chain bridges or start exploring agents on Sol.
This phenomenon is largely due to the 'mid-curve effect' and market panic. If you only realize these issues now, you need to seriously reflect on the reasons.
I am very grateful for the past few months, as I did not experience many serious losses.
I seized the opportunity in ai16z when it had a market cap of $30 million, also entered aixbt at a market cap of $30 million, in addition to some gaming and conversational projects that were laid out when they were below $10 million in market cap.
Of course, there have been some missed opportunities, such as Zerebro, Fartcoin, Snai, and Swarm Node. But that's okay; it's impossible to seize every opportunity; what's important is to reflect on why you missed out and why they were successful.
Quality
As always, quality is always the key to winning:
High-level developers;
Outstanding brand building;
Innovative ideas or unique technologies with competitive advantages;
Cohesive and high-quality community;
Clear and valuable information and communication;
These are all core factors we have been focusing on. If two or more of the above are missing, there is a risk. Why? Because there will always be other teams that can do better.
For example, in the current environment of Virtuals, as long as a high-quality team launches AI agents or related infrastructure, I will quickly invest early (i.e., 'go all in'). The developer identity is public and transparent (doxxed), they have been deep in this field for over 5 years and have participated in multiple protocols - as long as I identify such teams early, I will decisively enter the market.
In fact, you don't even need to invest too much money to get considerable returns. For example, I discovered the GEKKO project when it just started, with a market cap of only $4 million. Because it was developed by the Axal team and received investment from a16z - that was enough for me, so I decisively invested. As a result, it rose from a market cap of $4 million to $40 million, yielding significant returns. I believe it will continue to grow further. Turning $4,000 into $40,000 is a year's salary for some people. Sometimes, you don't need to invest huge amounts; $2,000 or $4,000 can bring considerable returns. Don't underestimate the potential of these funds.
Another project I have been laying out is Acolyt, whose team is very strong, with a narrative similar to GEKKO. I've mentioned before that if there are 100 different AI agents that can provide high-quality market intelligence (alpha), then the only things that can differentiate them are identity, user interface (UI), branding, developer level, etc. - this is no different from other fields in life.
This is what I've been looking for: teams that have been focused on building for a long time - those passionate top developers who continuously tweet and launch new products. They are the only destination for my funds; I won't consider other places.
Things to avoid
Avoid solo development teams with undisclosed identities, especially when building speculative agent projects, as this carries high risk.
Another thing to be cautious about is agent projects initiated by individual 'influencers'. Such projects are often abandoned shortly after announcement because developers realize the responsibility exceeds expectations.
Struggling narratives
I must admit, there are some narratives that I personally hold in high regard, but their development has indeed encountered some difficulties. This does not mean these projects are bad, but rather that their progress is relatively slow.
Investing funds into a seemingly promising project, only to find its performance underwhelming while other surrounding projects achieve 2-3x growth in a short time, can indeed be frustrating.
These projects often belong to the 'slow burn' type, or ultimately become 'auxiliary experiments' for other projects.
For example, $GRIFT + $REALIS + $OMEGA. I still hold some of these, but practically, I should have cut losses earlier and shifted funds to stronger AI infrastructure projects like REI and ARC. The potential of these projects is more obvious, and their performance is more stable.
At that time, I invested about $100,000 to $120,000 in these 'experimental' projects, originally expecting them to capture a larger market share. In hindsight, projects like Griffain supported by Solana are clearly stronger, while projects like Realis require more time to mature, possibly due to overly advanced ideas or smaller team sizes.
Reflecting on it, when you achieve 20-30 times returns on projects like $GAME, you feel you have enough capital to 'test the waters' or take risks, so you don't care too much about putting funds in a slow-progressing project. But in reality, as a trader or investor, we shouldn't treat our funds this way.
In the coming weeks, I will continue to share observations about agents and market operations, while also paying attention to the next possible market rotation opportunity. We all know that no narrative can last forever. This doesn't necessarily mean the narrative of agents has ended, but they may be entering a new stage of development.
Remember, the market is changing very quickly now, almost accelerating in all aspects. If you slack off, you may be eliminated. Pay attention to market dynamics every day, as 'hot potatoes' are becoming increasingly hot.
Reviewing some obvious investment opportunities in the market
Some market opportunities are very obvious to some people but not necessarily to others. I won’t list all examples, but will share some main cases and how I grasped these narratives.
VIRTUALS
When I first saw the GOAT project take off, I was deeply attracted to it. Realizing its potential, I immediately invested. But later, I completely missed $ZEREBRO and $BULLY, both of which have performed very well to this day. This made me more urgently seek the next potential opportunity.
It was then that I discovered aixbt. When I learned about its functions and positioning, I immediately realized this was the next project worth following, especially after seeing discussions in the community about $GOAT, $ZEREBRO, and $BULLY. I noticed the market was gradually shifting from entertainment projects to practical projects. This shift is exactly what made me start paying attention to projects like Base, Virtuals, $GAME, and $CONVO.
In fact, it was an article by Jeff about how Virtuals could become a billion-dollar protocol that made me determined. The tokenomics, brand building, and ecosystem advantages of the Base chain mentioned in the article further convinced me of Virtuals' immense potential.
By studying $GAME, I was finally able to correctly understand the concept of 'frameworks'. This knowledge allowed me to seize many excellent investment opportunities in the following weeks. Although I'm not a tech geek and can't fully grasp all the details, I am very interested in this field and willing to learn as much as possible.
Interestingly, when the market cap of Virtuals reached $5-6 million, I did not invest in it.
I believe that when you confirm the potential of an ecosystem, such as its potential to grow to $5 billion, $10 billion, or even $20 billion in scale, you need to focus on two key points: first, 'pioneers', and second, those agents that continuously occupy the user mindset.
For example, $LUNA is a typical pioneer, while $VADER is the first DAO/ALPHA project.
In this ecosystem, there are many projects worth watching. For me, the team is the most critical factor, followed by the concept and practicality, and finally the brand and identity. These three constitute the 'sacred trinity'.
Here are some excellent projects worth researching:
> $WAI;
> $ACOLYT;
> $SEKOIA;
> $GEKKO;
These projects are worth focusing on, especially those that belong to the Agentstarter ecosystem.
AI16z
It may sound a bit casual, but when I first encountered and promoted daos.fun, I almost invested in AI16z solely because of the name. After thoroughly researching projects like Truth Terminal funded by Marc, I am convinced that this is a project worth watching.
When I learned that AI16z DAO is attracting top developers from around the world and is committed to accelerating its ecosystem and framework development, I became even more convinced of its immense potential. Activity on GitHub continues to rise, and the momentum of the entire project is rapidly accumulating, which cannot be explained by 'mid-curve thinking'.
Despite some FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) during the period, the test projects in their agent ecosystem, $ELIZA and $DEGENAI, are both very promising. For example, Eliza's market cap has reached $160 million, while @degenspartanai has reached $100 million. With the continuous expansion of AI16z, it is expected that these two projects will further grow - these are all very obvious investment opportunities.
Other ecosystems
In Agentic Outlook One, I detailed the main Launchpad/protocols and their Alpha agents or Beta projects:
Creator.Bid | $BID (potential dark horse)
Algo | Growth from $2-3 million to $25 million market cap (an obvious opportunity)
Holoworld AI | $AVA
AVA | Growth from about $25 million to $150 million
vvaifu.fun | $VVAIFU
@dasha | Growth from $15 million to $150 million
The following ecosystems are also worth watching:
$UOS
$AIMONICA
$STOIC
@MoemateAI | $MATES (coming soon)
We also early covered Nebula | $MOE, which grew from $5 million to $25 million.
Other ecosystems worth paying attention to:
ALCHEMIST AI | $ALCH
FXN | $FXN
arc | $ARC
griffain | $GRIFFAIN
Top Hat 🎩 AI | $HAT
Empyreal | $EMP
Spectral | $SPEC
3σ | $TRISIG
Many of these projects have already achieved several times growth.
Complete analysis can be viewed here: link
This list can go on, as these projects have even higher potential - they are all very obvious investment opportunities.
However, I still hold onto some other projects I believe have potential, such as $GRIFT and $REALIS. I believe they just need more time and some adjustments to perform well.
Here are some projects I didn't have time to analyze in depth, but they are also worth watching:
$REI | REI Network
$SERV | OpenServ
$HEU | Heurist
Among these projects, particularly $REI is worth additional attention.
Outside the on-chain ecosystem, I am very optimistic about the combination of decentralized finance (DEFI) and agents:
$MODE | Mode, this is a project I believe has great potential.
Another one to look forward to is the further development of Uomi.
Stick to choosing projects with excellent teams, strong infrastructure (Infra), and high attention/popularity/user mindshare, and you won't go wrong.
For me, the lifecycle of agents is usually short because most projects struggle to maintain market attention for long periods. But in my view, AIXBT and GOAT are exemplars of success in the agent field.
Why reflect on these?
Because this can help you discover the next worthy investment opportunity.
Notes
Some early projects worth noting include $GNON, $PROJECT89, $AVB, etc.
$OPUS's market cap has dropped by 85%, and many early AI projects may have bottomed out.
We need to focus on whether these projects are still actively developing, while also remembering that the potential of AI infrastructure (Infra) and agents is immense.
New ideas and concepts emerge every week, and these new projects often have stronger teams and better branding, so we need to continuously scan the entire market.
I'm not saying these projects are bad, but I want to emphasize that the pace of market changes is very fast - many traders who have experienced 80-100x returns will quickly cash out and then turn to the next more attractive opportunity, whether in areas like swarm intelligence, decentralized science (DeSci), or DEFI agents.
Excellent teams always find ways to maintain long-term market relevance.
Finally, there are some trends worth watching:
Currently, there are many hackathon events taking place, which have spawned some very interesting ideas and projects. Participating in these activities not only helps you expand your horizons but also allows you to better understand future technological trends.
Data sources for AI agents:
Cookie DAO | $COOKIE;
Alphanomics;
Decentralised.Co, in cooperation with Sentient Market;
In the coming days, we can discuss the future development direction of the agent field together, so that when the market narrative changes, we can seize the initiative.
