BlockBeats news, on January 7, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explained in his latest long article why he believes the crypto market will peak in mid-March and then experience a significant correction by analyzing the US dollar liquidity environment in the first quarter of 2025 and its impact on the crypto market. With the decline in the balance of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool and the release of funds from the Treasury General Account (TGA), approximately $61.2 billion in liquidity is expected to be injected in the first quarter, providing support for Bitcoin and other assets.
However, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) will reduce liquidity by approximately $180 billion, and the debt ceiling issue may trigger a liquidity shift in the second quarter. The Treasury may use TGA to pay for government spending until May to June, after which it will need to raise the debt ceiling, which will have a negative impact on liquidity. Additionally, the peak tax period (such as mid-April) will further suppress market liquidity. Despite various macroeconomic variables, the flow of funds from RRP and TGA has a relatively clear impact on the market. In summary, the market is expected to see a short-term peak at the end of the first quarter, followed by a potential adjustment period.