Bitcoin: After Retail Investors Exit, Can BTC Break Through $100,000?

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Since Bitcoin (BTC) reached its high of $100,000 three weeks ago, the market has continued to consolidate, and retail investor enthusiasm has sharply declined. Despite a 3.07% increase over the past week, BTC is currently hovering at $97,834 and has not broken through key resistance.

Retail Demand Plummets

Data shows that retail demand for Bitcoin surged 30% upon reaching $100,000, but then quickly fell back, with current retail demand down 16% from its peak. This phenomenon indicates that retail investors tend to chase after rising prices and panic sell, resulting in significant emotional fluctuations in the market.

Historically, when retail demand spikes rapidly, it often signals that the market is nearing a local top, while the sharp decline in demand creates buying opportunities for institutions and seasoned investors.

Market Shifts to Strong Capital

Currently, market activity is shifting from retail to 'smart money'. The recent Supply-Adjusted Profit Ratio (SOPR) has maintained at 1.01, indicating that holders are generally unwilling to sell at a loss. Meanwhile, the proportion of whales on exchanges has dropped to 0.37, suggesting that a large amount of BTC has been transferred to private wallets, indicating strong bullish sentiment.

Potential Bitcoin Trends

Bullish Factors

Institutional Accumulation: After retail investors exit, more BTC is absorbed by large holders, stabilizing market funds.

HODL Behavior: Whales are transferring BTC to private wallets on a large scale, suggesting potential further increases in the future.

Risk Warning

If the market adjusts again, Bitcoin may fall to the support level of $96,100.

Key Breakthrough Point

If BTC can break through $98,700, it is likely to challenge $100,000 again, or even move further upwards.

Summary

After the cooling of retail demand, the market focus has shifted to strong capital, with a significant accumulation trend. If current conditions persist, BTC may return to $100,000 in the future, but potential adjustment risks should still be monitored in the short term. Traders should pay attention to the resistance level at $98,700 and the support level at $96,100 for flexible responses.

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