The ETF craze has returned again. Currently, the most hotly discussed in the market is the ETF market trends of the three major currencies: SOL, XRP and DOGE, which are worth investors' attention.
Trump's presidency may promote the listing of cryptocurrency ETFs!
Solana ETF
The probability of listing in the United States has now risen to 86%. According to data from the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, the preliminary probability of Solana ETF listing in the United States in 2025 is 77%, but VanEck's research director Siegel believes that this forecast is too conservative and has adjusted it to 86%. He said that after Trump's victory, policy support for the US cryptocurrency market will promote the listing of more crypto ETFs. Trump has stated that he is committed to making the United States the global capital of cryptocurrency, and this position may help the smooth listing of Solana ETF.
However, the application for the Solana ETF faced challenges due to the SEC's questioning of whether Solana is a security. If Solana is deemed a security, its ETF listing will encounter a more complex compliance process. Despite these challenges, the market generally believes that Trump’s policies will support the listing of Solana and other cryptocurrency ETFs.
Ripple ETF
As Gary Gensler confirms he will not be staying on, the market expects the legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC to be resolved in 2025. The new SEC team may adopt a more cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory stance, particularly under the policy tone of the Trump administration, which is beneficial for Ripple. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed optimism about collaborating with the new SEC team, and the market speculates that the lawsuit may settle or be withdrawn.
Legal analyst Jeremy Hogan predicts that the case may conclude as early as April or May 2025, but the proceedings could be delayed. The overall atmosphere suggests that the outcome of the case will have significant implications for XRP.
Before the new team takes office, the current SEC is expected to submit opening statement documents on January 15, attempting to influence the direction of the case before the transition. There is a general belief that the new management will create a favorable development environment for Ripple.
If Ripple wins the lawsuit, the approval of the XRP ETF will accelerate, benefiting applicant institutions like Bitwise from clearer regulations, attracting more institutional investment. Over the past week, XRP's price has risen over 25%, from $2.01 to $2.48, and has now pulled back to around $2.40.
DOGE ETF
Industry experts believe that Dogecoin ($DOGE) has the potential for a spot ETF, despite currently not meeting certain SEC requirements. Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Dogecoin lacks a regulated futures market, which is often a key factor for the SEC in approving ETFs. However, analysts believe internal changes within the SEC, especially in the event of Trump's potential reelection, may adjust regulatory standards and create opportunities for the approval of Dogecoin's spot ETF.
Bitwise strategist Juan Leon notes that under current regulations, Dogecoin faces challenges in obtaining ETF approval, but changes in the SEC leadership may lead to more lenient policies. Additionally, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas states that the innovativeness of the ETF industry means that Dogecoin may still be included in future ETF products, especially in the context of increasing acceptance of digital assets in traditional financial markets. With its popularity and community support, Dogecoin may benefit from this trend.
According to Polymarket's survey, the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot DOGE ETF has dropped from 50% last week to 26%, but this trend may reverse. In contrast, the approval chances for the Solana ETF have risen to 86%, and for Ripple (XRP) ETF, it is 70%.
The low odds for the DOGE ETF may stem from the absence of financial firms filing applications, while WisdomTree, with a market cap of $100 billion, has applied for a Ripple ETF. Meanwhile, the SEC is expected to decide by January 31 whether to approve the Solana ETF. Nevertheless, if the SEC under new leadership is more flexible regarding crypto funds, a Dogecoin ETF could still be applied for and approved. DOGE, as a cryptocurrency similar to Bitcoin, holds an important position in the industry, with a market cap of $50 billion, significantly higher than MicroStrategy.
Crypto ETFs are performing well, helping institutional investors enter the market, with Bitcoin ETFs holding over $105 billion in assets and Ethereum funds exceeding $12 billion.
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