This relatively stable chip structure and stablecoin accumulation show that there is no significant adjustment pressure within the market.
Two weeks after the Fed's interest rate cut expectations turned downward, the U.S. stock market continued to adjust, with only a rebound on Friday. BTC, which had adjusted more sharply before, was relatively strong this week. It remained stable above $91,000 despite the outflow of BTC Spot ETF, and achieved five consecutive trading days of gains this week. BTC opened at $93,563.35 and closed at $98,345.33, recording a 5.11% increase of $4,781.98 for the whole week, an amplitude of 8.23%, and a slight shrinkage in trading volume. As Trump is about to take office, the worries of U.S. stock funds continue, and the volatility of U.S. bonds is also rising, showing that the market has not yet found a direction. Macro-financial and economic data The U.S. dollar index continued to climb, reaching a high of 109.5196 on Friday. London gold rose slightly to $2,639.62, the yield on one-year U.S. bonds fell slightly to 4.171%, and the yield on ten-year U.S. bonds continued to climb to 4.601%. The three major U.S. stock indexes, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and S&P 500, rose 1.77%, fell 0.6% and fell 0.48% respectively. They were weak for most of the week, and only on Friday did they usher in relatively strong buying. The U.S. will release non-farm data next Friday, which may provide direction for trading parties. If the non-farm data is lower than expected, it may increase expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On the contrary, strong labor market data may strengthen the Fed's cautious stance, thereby limiting the possibility of aggressive easing policies. This will push up U.S. Treasury yields and put pressure on U.S. stocks. Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETFs Since the change in expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts on the 18th, funds in the two channels of BTC Spot ETF and stablecoins in the crypto market have continued to outflow, and the situation has improved this week. BTC Spot ETF and stablecoin channel funds remain in the same direction, and they are in an outflow state from Monday to Thursday. By Friday, the enthusiasm for long positions in U.S. stocks has recovered slightly, and funds in both channels have ushered in strong inflows, with a total inflow of US$1.683 billion on that day, and stablecoins continue to inflow on Saturday and Sunday. Looking at the whole week, the outflow ended last week and a small amount of net inflow was recorded for the whole week. Although the trading volume was sluggish this week, the funds in the market did not retreat. By the weekend, the stock funds of the exchange hit a record high of 46 billion US dollars, showing that selling power is gathering. Once the external environment recovers, it will push BTC and other encrypted targets back to the upward trend.Selling pressure and sellingAfter the BTC price rushed to the range of 90,000 to 110,000 US dollars, the selling pressure mainly came from short and long hands in the "new high consolidation zone" of 50,000 to 70,000. After the upward trend was broken by the Fed's interest rate expectations, there was no large-scale selling, and the selling pressure from long and short hands continued to weaken. As of this week, the BTC flowing into the exchange was only at a low level of 200,000. During the same period, the exchange inventory continued to flow out slowly. After the price reduction, the floating profit level of short hands fell to 12%. The contract market rate and open interest have also been adjusted to a lower level. This relatively stable chip structure and stablecoin accumulation show that there is no great adjustment pressure in the market. Cycle Metrics According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.625, and the market is in an upward period. About EMC LabsEMC Labs (Emergence Laboratory) was founded in April 2023 by crypto asset investors and data scientists. Focusing on blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as core competitiveness, we are committed to participating in the booming blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting blockchain and encrypted assets to bring benefits to mankind. For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund

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