This week's macro analysis: On January 9, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the December 2024 monetary policy meeting.
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 88.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. The probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged until March 2025 is 49.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 45.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 4.9%.
Monday 22:30, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks;
Tuesday 23:00, US December ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US November JOLTS Job Openings:
Wednesday 21:15, US December ADP Employment Change;
Thursday 03:00, Federal Reserve releases minutes from the December monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, US December Challenger Job Cut numbers;
Friday 21:30, US December unemployment rate, US December seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US December average hourly wage year-on-year/month-on-month, Friday 23:00, US January one-year inflation expectations preliminary value, US January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value
Today's analysis of Bitcoin: bearish trend in the market outlook, short-sell on rallies strategy! Touching the resistance level above! Divergence point between 99740 and 101800!
Today's analysis of Bitcoin: similar to the large Bitcoin, looking for a pullback to touch the resistance level! 3662 to 3718
The trends of the smaller Bitcoin and the larger Bitcoin are different; the smaller Bitcoin is relatively stronger! Once it breaks through the divergence zone, the range of 3797 to 39401 can be seen.
Pay attention to Dogecoin; this month with Trump in office and Musk's endorsement, the hype will soar.
The above views are time-sensitive. Do not constitute investment advice! Pay attention to risk control!
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