The "reversal" they are talking about is narrowly defined as a pure upward trend with a unilateral rise, a steady rise above 100,000 and continued rise, and no pullback. In my opinion, this understanding of the reversal is biased, and can even be said to be a misunderstanding. Some people often mention predictions such as "It would be ideal to open a position if BTC can pull back to 84,000." Such analysis is very easy to miss opportunities for short-term investors, and may mislead investors holding medium-term short positions to stick to the 84,000 mark. Once BTC breaks through the 100,000 mark again, or even sets a new high in the future, those investors who chase short positions at low levels will be panicked.
I think that whenever BTC falls back to around 90,000 and successfully supports, we should not over-exaggerate the view of bearishness to 80,000-70,000. BTC has hovered around 90,000 countless times without breaking through, and then quickly pulled up to 9.6/9.7 million, firmly standing above the 95,000 center. Once the 97200-97700 range is broken, it can be regarded as a reversal signal, because it will immediately touch the 98200-98800 area. After digesting the pressure of 98200, it will be expected to hit the price of 100,000 and above. Even if the initial impact fails and falls back, it will still launch another offensive later. After all, with Congress certifying Trump's victory and Trump's official inauguration on January 20, the market is full of positive expectations during this period, rather than waiting until January 20 to start rising. When the good news is realized, it is basically the time to sell at high prices.
Entering the second half of the bull market, even if the market is strong, it is impossible to show a pure unilateral rise. Because as prices rise, the amount of funds required to pull is getting bigger and bigger. The 100,000 mark is already a psychological high for retail investors in this round of halving cycle, and a slight rise may trigger shipments. Shipments will inevitably bring fluctuations and retracements, but the retracement range of retail investors is usually limited. The main funds are the real cause of large fluctuations, and the concentrated shipments of the main forces are often affected by information, among which the most critical is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, followed by off-market factors such as war and epidemics. Therefore, in the absence of clear information guidance, prices cannot only rise but not fall. Therefore, the correction reversal after the interest rate meeting on December 18 should not be simply understood as the continuation of unilateral rise, but should be regarded as the end of the correction and the transformation of short forces to long forces. Although the failure to cut interest rates in January is negative, this negative has been fully digested by the market, and the correction in the first two weeks is the embodiment of this negative impact. At this time, we should firmly stick to the strategy of buying on dips and avoid frequent top-hunting, because there is no clear top in the current market, and we may fall into the dilemma of being trapped if we are not careful. Human nature is often like this, the more it rises, the more we worry about falling, so we keep covering our shorts. If there is a positive expectation of a rate cut in March at this time, those short sellers will definitely be in trouble.
The year is coming to an end, and Ethereum is under pressure. Most of the market is fluctuating. Currently, it is anchored on a doubled fresh product, and the expected increase is more than 40%. Last week, the zen given by Lao Jiu has eaten 50%, perfectly escaping the top. At the end of the year, seize the last opportunity to make money! ! !
Hurry up and follow Lao Jiu's footsteps! ! The number of places is limited, first come first served, and only given to a small number of fans! ! ! ! 857 below to get on the bus! ! !
