January 6, #比特币走势观察 2025.

Stay cautious, avoid being aggressive.

At this moment in the last bull market, all kinds of assets, including Bitcoin, value coins, and altcoins, were soaring.

In this bull market's first quarter, I judge the exact opposite.

Bitcoin is moving sideways with slight declines (sideways instead of down), value coins are rising, and altcoins are bleeding profusely; there is no altcoin season, only an altcoin sacrifice.

Of course, my judgment could be wrong.

But with the main positions in ETH and BNB, it can both prevent missing out and guard against assets being “sacrificed” by altcoins.

If an asset is halved by 50%, it must rise by 100% to return to its previous high.

If it is halved by 60%, it must rise by 150% to return to its previous high.

If it is halved by 70%, it must rise by 240% to return to its previous high.

Asset safety always comes first.

Moreover, with so many people using leverage to bet on altcoin season, my chances of being right are greater, while others' chances of being right are smaller.

Be cautious when everyone is aggressive, and be aggressive when everyone is cautious.

Even in a bull market, timing is essential; for example, buy altcoins below the annual line, and value coins should also be bought when close to the annual line.

When the locations are roughly the same near the annual line, definitely choose the more valuable one.

If the prices of BNB and UNI are equally close to the annual line, I will definitely choose to buy BNB on dips. If UNI and EOS are equally below the annual line, I will definitely choose to buy UNI on dips.

Altcoins are only worth the risk if they are not below the annual line.

Even for value coins, if they are too far from the annual line, they are not worth buying. Value can relax a bit on the boundary, buying close to the annual line.

Do not underestimate the power of mean reversion.

All assets will fluctuate around the annual line. Constantly deviating too high from the annual line, then returning to it, then continuing to deviate.

When you forget common sense, you will have to pay a great price.

#比特币走势观察 #Coin safety ball user surpasses 250 million $BTC