what happen?

  • According to forecasting platform Polymarket, the chance of a Solana ETF listing in the U.S. in 2025 has risen from 77% to 86%.

  • Market views believe that after Trump takes office, he will be a boost to the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs.

  • If the Solana ETF wants to be successfully listed, it must adopt a "Grantor Trust" structure similar to the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and avoid being regarded as securities, otherwise it will face more stringent regulatory requirements.

Polymarket predicts 86% chance of Solana ETF listing in U.S.

According to data released by the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket on New Year's Day, the preliminary probability of the Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 is 77%. However, Matthew Sigel, head of research at asset management company VanEck, responded that this probability has been "Underestimation".

Source: X

Judging from the current writing, the probability of prediction on January 3 has indeed reached 86%. Foreign media (Cointelegraph) analyzed that Siegel’s optimism reflects the entire industry’s expectations for more cryptocurrency ETFs to be listed in the United States, especially after Donald Trump, who supports cryptocurrency, won the election as U.S. President.

Trump has stated that he hopes to make the United States “the world’s crypto capital.”

Trump's inauguration gives boost to Solana ETF

The listing of Solana ETF has attracted much attention in the industry. In June last year, VanEck and other competitors such as 21Shares submitted relevant applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but in August they were questioned by the SEC, pointing out that Solana may be designated. are securities rather than commodities.

If cryptocurrencies are considered securities, the establishment and listing of an ETF becomes more complex because of the strict requirements of U.S. securities laws. Institutions that issue ETFs must complete additional compliance processes, such as submitting detailed documentation, registration applications, and ensuring that transactions with investors comply with securities laws.

This controversy has affected the ETF launch plans of many asset managers, but market views believe that Trump’s victory will be a boost for the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs. As early as after the election in November 2024, Siegel had predicted that the probability of the United States approving the Solana ETF in 2025 was "extremely high."

(Cointelegraph) pointed out that the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs currently listed in the United States use a special structure of "Grantor Trust", which is suitable for funds that simply hold a commodity. If the Solana ETF wants to successfully go public, it must adopt a similar structure and avoid being considered a security or face stricter regulatory requirements.

Whether the Solana ETF can be successfully listed will be a key point in 2025, when Trump officially takes over as President of the United States.

  • This article is reproduced with permission from: (Web3+)

  • Original author: Li Pengrui

  • Original title: (Can Solana ETF be listed in 2025? Prediction market Polymarket has a probability of passing bets as high as 86%)

“Can the 2025 Solana ETF be listed? On-chain betting: The probability of passing is as high as 86%! 』This article was first published in "CryptoCity"