Bitcoin Trump rally may weaken ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of January: 10x Research

10x Research founder, Markus Thielen, stated that the Federal Reserve's decisions remain the 'main risk' causing Bitcoin to slow down before the next price surge.

The Bitcoin rally led by Trump — expected to take place in the days leading up to his inauguration on January 20 — may gradually decrease by the end of the month when the Federal Reserve announces its first interest rate decision of the new year. In a report on January 5, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen predicted that a 'positive start' in early January will be followed by a slight decline ahead of the Consumer Price Index inflation data on January 15 before rising again before Trump's inauguration.

Thielen commented on the potential positive CPI results: 'Favorable inflation data could spark optimism, driving momentum ahead of Trump's inauguration.'

'However, this momentum may weaken as the market is likely to see a slight decline ahead of the FOMC meeting on January 29,' he said.

CME Group's FedWatch tool currently shows an 88.8% chance that the target federal funds rate will remain in the range of 425 to 450 basis points after the FOMC meeting on January 29.

Bitcoin has dropped nearly 15% to around $92,800 after the FOMC meeting on December 18, where they cut the number of expected rate cuts in 2025 from five to two. According to Thielen, the Federal Reserve's communications are the 'main risk' behind Bitcoin's rally in 2025.