$BTC 2025.1.5 Night Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions
Review of Past Analysis:
Since the decline began at 108,000 points, the market has displayed a downward structure of wave one and wave two. During this period, the market also experienced two waves of rebound. The high point of the first rebound was around 99,500 points. Currently, we cannot completely determine the high point of the second rebound, but if this high point is indeed 99,000 points, then according to technical analysis, the price should further decline, reaching levels below 91,500 points.
Current Market Analysis:
Observing the current daily K-line chart, we can see that the price is showing a rising trend with each candle, but the trading volume is decreasing with each candle. Yesterday's daily K-line closed with a doji, which usually indicates potential reversal risks. If today's closing price can effectively break below yesterday's doji low of 97,400 points, then we can conclude that the market will likely enter a correction phase.
At the same time, from the Fibonacci retracement shown in the chart, we can also see that the resistance at 0.5 is at the 100k position. If we expand to the four-hour chart, it is currently making a range-bound fluctuation, but it may not necessarily touch the top of the range.
Summary: Currently, the cost-effectiveness of the bearish side is relatively high. If you want to be strongly bullish, a breakthrough above 100k is needed.
Trading Suggestions: Place short orders at 98.5k or 99.5k, with a stop loss at 100600.
If the 4-hour closing is above 100k or breaks out with volume, you can directly chase longs. For stability, you can wait for the first pullback after breaking through 100k to enter.
