Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering the week's key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you through this week's blockchain industry events.
Headlines
▌Biden orders the executive branch of the government to shut down on January 9, 2025
On December 30, local time, US President Biden ordered all federal government executive departments and agencies to close on January 9, 2025 to pay tribute to Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the United States, who died on the 29th. Biden said in a statement that the heads of federal government executive departments and agencies may decide to keep some offices and facilities open for reasons of national security, defense or other public needs. Previously, the White House had declared January 9, 2025 a national day of mourning to commemorate Carter.
▌Do Kwon was extradited to the United States
According to Bloomberg, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajic said on Tuesday that Montenegro has completed the extradition of Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon and handed him over to the United States. He posted on the X platform: This extradition demonstrates our firm commitment to international justice and the rule of law. Do Kwon is currently facing dual prosecution in New York and Seoul for the $40 billion loss caused by the TerraUSD stablecoin collapse in 2022. Previously, he was arrested in Montenegro for using a forged passport. In April this year, Terraform Labs and Do Kwon were found guilty of fraud in a civil lawsuit charged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and Terraform has agreed to pay a $4.5 billion settlement.
Ethereum may outperform Bitcoin in 2025
In a report on Sunday, Steno Research said that it expects the price of Bitcoin to rise from about $94,000 to at least $150,000 next year, while the price of ETH will more than double from $3,400 to at least $8,000. That is, the ETH/BTC exchange rate will rise from the current $0.0357 to $0.06 in the next 12 months, similar to the price action in previous cycles, and altcoins will be the focus of attention. "This expectation is partly based on the argument that Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election is more favorable for altcoins than for Bitcoin," analyst Mads Eberhardt wrote. Bitcoin's market share is expected to fall from about 56.6% currently to 45%, the report said. The TVL of decentralized applications is expected to reach a new high of $300 billion next year, which, if the prediction is correct, further supports the argument for rising altcoin prices.
policy
▌Analysis: The implementation of the MiCA Act brings uncertainty to USDT compliance, which may affect the EU crypto market landscape
The EU's MiCA Act has officially come into effect, but Tether's USDT has not yet received compliance certification, which has raised concerns about its future in the EU market. MiCA imposes strict requirements on stablecoin issuers, and big stablecoins such as Tether face capital reserve and liquidity requirements, which may lead to their withdrawal from the EU market. Nevertheless, Tether's huge market capitalization and global adoption make it unlikely to suffer an immediate financial impact. At the same time, some EU exchanges have begun to take measures to respond to the new regulations, and Coinbase Europe has removed stablecoins such as USDT. Analysts say MiCA will push some small and large companies to withdraw from the EU, promote market integration, and may bring higher investment and operating costs.
▌Judge postpones CFTC vs. Gemini trial to January 21
New York court judge Alvin Hellerstein decided to postpone the civil trial between the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Gemini Trust to January 21, 2024. The original trial date was January 13. The case stems from the CFTC's allegations against Gemini in 2022, accusing it of providing false or misleading statements to the CFTC when it applied to offer Bitcoin futures contracts in 2017. The postponed trial date will coincide with the inauguration of the new president, which may affect the CFTC's position on Gemini and other crypto companies. The court stated that no further postponement would be approved unless there are special circumstances.
▌Blockchain Association sues US IRS over digital asset reporting rules
The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recently issued new regulations requiring crypto platforms (including decentralized exchanges) to report digital asset transaction information, and stipulated that starting from 2027, platforms must disclose taxpayer information and sales revenue involved in digital asset transactions. In response, the Blockchain Association and the Texas Blockchain Association jointly sued the IRS, arguing that the rule violated the U.S. Administrative Procedure Act and could have a negative impact on the U.S. crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) industries. Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association, said the lawsuit aims to protect the future of the U.S. crypto industry and support the interests of innovators.
▌Hong Kong Legislative Council member Wu Jiezhuang: The SAR government can refer to the securities industry to establish a DAO licensing system
Wu Jiezhuang, Chairman of the Web3 and Virtual Asset Development Forum Committee of the Legislative Council of Hong Kong, said that the Hong Kong High Court heard the world's first lawsuit involving a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) in August this year. Currently, the United States and Abu Dhabi have relevant legal frameworks to regulate DAOs. Since DAOs have no legal entity, it is recommended that the SAR government can refer to the licensing system of the securities industry to establish a DAO licensing system, requiring licensed DAOs to clarify internal individual relationships and must establish responsible officers (ROs) to ensure that licensed companies comply with the regulations of the regulatory authorities and maintain the company's daily operations.
Syria proposes legalizing Bitcoin to boost economic recovery
According to Cryptopolitan, the Syrian Economic Research Center has proposed a plan urging the transitional government to adopt Bitcoin and other digital assets to combat inflation, stabilize the economy and attract global investment. The plan comes as the country faces huge reconstruction challenges after decades of war and financial disaster. The proposal focuses on using Bitcoin as a lifeline for Syrian citizens and their shaky financial system. It recommends establishing a regulatory framework to legalize the use of Bitcoin in trading, mining and financial transactions.
▌U.S. prosecutors bring additional charges against Do Kwon for conspiracy to launder money
Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon faces an additional charge of conspiracy to launder money after being extradited from Montenegro to the United States, the U.S. Attorney’s Office revealed.
In an indictment released by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York on January 2, U.S. Attorney Damian Williams accused Do Kwon of conspiring with others to launder money. The money laundering charge was not initially included in the eight-count indictment against Do Kwon in March 2023.
Blockchain Applications
▌Musk: Community Notes is completely decentralized and open source
Musk said at X that the best way to ensure the accuracy of the Community Notes system is to become a contributor. He emphasized that the system is completely decentralized and open source, including code and data, and any manipulation will be easily discovered. Musk further pointed out that X and its team, including himself, have no editorial control over the system. The system works in such a way that people who once disagreed must reach a consensus before a note can be displayed.
▌Phala Network founder: Eve will refer to aiPool and introduce the fourth-generation token issuance model
PhalaNetwork founder Marvin Tong posted on his social platform that Eve will refer to aiPool and introduce the fourth-generation token issuance model. The token distribution arrangement of the new model is as follows: 65% of the new tokens will be distributed to whitelist contributors in proportion to their confirmed contributions. 20% of the new tokens create a liquidity pool with SPORE on Metaora/Raydium and burn LP to lock value. 10% is held by the new AI agent for its initial operation and autonomy. 5% will be sent to the wallet of the parent company AI as a profit share. 10% is held by the new AI agent for its initial operation and autonomy. 5% will be sent to the wallet of the parent company AI as a profit share.
▌Trader Eugene: PENGU is basically a replica of APE
Trader Eugene posted on the X platform that PENGU is basically a copy of APE, but with a functioning team that knows how to execute projects under Luca Netz and an important upcoming catalyst, the Abstract Chain, which was launched in January. Eugene said: "I like the fact that we have run the full airdrop fractal and early participants have basically completely exited this stage so that we can now get proper price discovery in 2025."
Floki DAO voted unanimously to approve the ETP funding proposal
Floki DAO voted unanimously to use 16.3 billion Floki tokens as liquidity to support the exchange-traded product (ETP) that will be launched in the first quarter of 2025. The product will be listed on the Swiss SIX Stock Exchange, providing European traditional financial investors with access to Floki tokens.
▌Starknet: Stwo prover will be launched on Starknet in April 2025
Ethereum Layer 2 network Starknet announced on the X platform that the Stwo prover will be launched on Starknet in April 2025. This product is about 940 times more efficient than the current Starknet prover, and proof will no longer be a bottleneck.
Cryptocurrency
▌ZachXBT: Blockchain Bandit transfers 51,000 ETH, about $172 million, after 2 years of dormancy
The hacker Blockchain Bandit stole 51,000 Ethereum mainly by successfully guessing weak private keys. After lying dormant for nearly two years, blockchain investigator ZachXBT said in a Telegram post on December 30 that all 51,000 Ethereum were transferred from 10 wallet addresses to the multi-signature address "0xC451D542". These funds were mainly transferred in batches of 5,000 Ethereum between 8:54 pm UTC and 9:18 pm UTC on December 30.
Prior to this, the stolen funds had been lying dormant in these 10 wallet addresses since 51,000 Ethereum was moved on January 21, 2023. Around the same time, the hackers also moved 470 Bitcoin.
▌Yesterday, GBTC had a net outflow of US$134.5 million, and ETHE had a net outflow of US$17.4 million
According to Farside Investors monitoring data, the funding data of the US spot Bitcoin ETF and spot Ethereum ETF yesterday (December 30) are as follows:
Spot Bitcoin ETF: GBTC net outflow of US$134.5 million, BTC net outflow of US$31.7 million, and BITB net outflow of US$31.4 million;
Spot Ethereum ETF: ETHE had a net outflow of US$17.4 million, and ETH had a net outflow of US$13.8 million.
▌CZ: We don’t predict trends, we follow them and try to contribute
Binance founder CZ posted on the X platform, "I'm often asked, what's the next hot spot in cryptocurrency? Frankly speaking, I don't know. I try to help as many projects as possible to see where they will take us. We don't predict trends, we follow them (and try to contribute)."
▌QCP: Bitcoin's upward momentum weakened at the end of the year, and institutional allocation may become the key in 2025
QCP Capital pointed out that with the arrival of the end of the year, BTC's momentum has weakened significantly, and the upward trend is limited by selling pressure. Since December 19, the net outflow of spot ETFs has reached US$1.8 billion, and MicroStrategy's BTC purchases have slowed significantly. Looking ahead to 2025, the key catalyst may appear in January, as institutions will readjust their asset allocations. It is expected that the proportion of Bitcoin institutional allocations will increase, consolidate market dominance, stabilize spot volatility, and drive the market's demand for downside protection.
▌CryptoQuant: Binance stablecoin reserves hit a new high of $31 billion, indicating that buying pressure is rising
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote that Binance's stablecoin reserves reached $31 billion on December 11, a record high. It is worth noting that Binance's stablecoin reserves were only $7 billion in June 2023, and have increased nearly fivefold since then. An increase in stablecoin reserves usually means that buying pressure is rising. The current reserves remain around $30 billion, which shows that investors are still active in the market and may continue to maintain strong buying pressure.
▌Prime Minister of Montenegro: We welcome entrepreneurs in legal cryptocurrency, AI and other fields, and have zero tolerance for fraud
Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajic posted on the X platform: "Our country welcomes innovative and legal cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and other technology entrepreneurs, but we have zero tolerance for fraud." Earlier, Bloomberg revealed that Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajic said that Do Kwon's extradition procedures to the United States have been completed. Milojko Spajic said that this extradition demonstrated a firm commitment to international justice and the rule of law.
▌Hack VC: Web2 companies will return to the crypto market in 2025
Hack VC expects to see more large-scale acquisitions in 2025, as web2 companies interested in cryptocurrencies may return due to the continued bull market. Ed Roman, co-founder and managing partner of Hack VC, said: "These Web2 buyers have been inactive in the past few years due to the NFT crash and the FTX crash, but we expect them to return as cryptocurrencies enter the peak season again. In addition, since these companies usually lack expertise or technology in crypto, it is easier to acquire some companies than to develop them themselves."
Total NFT sales in 2024 will reach $8.8 billion, up 1.1% from 2023
According to CryptoSlam data, the total sales of NFTs in 2024 will reach 8.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.1% from 2023, indicating that the NFT market is still active. Ethereum and Bitcoin blockchains are both at the top with sales of 3.1 billion US dollars, and Solana ranks third with sales of 1.4 billion US dollars.
▌Aave deposits reached $33.4 billion, a record high
The total net deposits of decentralized financial platform Aave exceeded $33.4 billion, setting a new record high and surpassing the bull market level in 2021. In 2024, Aave launched version V4 and expanded its GHO stablecoin to multiple blockchain networks. In addition, Aave has added support for BNB chain, Scroll, ZKsync Era and ether.fi, and plans to introduce Sonic network, Mantle, Linea, BOB, Spider Chain and Aptos network in 2025, subject to community approval.
▌44.32 BTC flowed into the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust Fund, worth $4.31 million
According to Arkham monitoring, at around 00:45 Beijing time today, 44.32 BTC flowed from the Coinbase Prime hot wallet address into the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust Fund, worth US$4.31 million.
▌VanEck Research Director: The probability of Solana ETF listing in the United States in 2025 is more than 77%
Cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket previously stated that the probability of the Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 is about 77%. Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, said that this prediction is "underestimated."
VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from U.S. regulators to list a spot Solana ETF in June 2024. Shortly after Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election in November last year, Matthew Sigel said the chances of the U.S. approving a SOL ETF in 2025 were “extremely high.”
▌DWF Labs: Meme coin has transformed into a vertical market, and the growth trend will continue in 2025
DWF Labs noted in its year-end report that Meme coins have transformed into “complex vertical markets” and that Meme coins represent “unprecedented” opportunities to create value. The company said that the combination of “social dynamics” and “financial markets” is not just a passing fad but represents a new investment paradigm. For example, Dogecoin was originally a satirical commentary on cryptocurrencies and has now developed into a complex vertical market that has attracted a lot of capital flows and institutional attention.
Additionally, DWF Labs noted that the Meme coin market cap has surged 500% from $20 billion to $120 billion, a trend the firm believes is likely to continue in the new year.
Important economic developments
▌The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 88.8%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 88.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by March next year is 46.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 48.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.4%.
▌The US dollar index rose 0.13% on December 30
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.13% on the day and closed at 108.132 at the end of the foreign exchange market. As of the end of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 euro was exchanged for 1.0397 US dollars, lower than 1.0428 US dollars on the previous trading day; 1 pound was exchanged for 1.2544 US dollars, lower than 1.2582 US dollars on the previous trading day. 1 US dollar was exchanged for 157.09 Japanese yen, lower than 157.94 Japanese yen on the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 0.9040 Swiss francs, higher than 0.9018 Swiss francs on the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 1.4359 Canadian dollars, lower than 1.4411 Canadian dollars on the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 11.0249 Swedish kronor, higher than 11.0011 Swedish kronor on the previous trading day.
▌Federal Reserve Chairman Daly: Cryptocurrency should not be confused with gold and is still far from becoming a "currency"
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that cryptocurrencies should be viewed as a separate asset class and not lumped in with gold as is often the case, and that cryptocurrencies are complex and not yet ready to be "currencies." "I think cryptocurrency is a complex thing and the service we need to provide to everyone is to really decipher what it means, and once we do that, we can define it," Daly said in a podcast. "It can be a currency, it can be a medium of exchange, it can be a stock, an asset that holds value or sometimes loses value. We just have to define those terms." "So I don't think of it as being like gold," Daly added. "It sometimes has gold-like properties, but I don't think it's a gold-like asset."
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 88.8%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 88.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March is 47.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.3%.
