How is everyone doing with the recent market trends? These fluctuations are basically within my expected range, the downward trend seems to have stopped, and it looks like there might be a rebound. However, from the data, it may be a bit difficult to see a significant rise in the short term!
I think Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between 94,500 and 99,800. Although there is a slight increase, the growth is not significant, and the trading volume is not keeping up, so don't rush to declare that the bull market has returned for now.
Let’s talk about BNB again. I think it will continue to fluctuate between 685 and 730. When the results of the 63rd BIO airdrop came out yesterday, hey, the price was about the same as my previous prediction about $BIO, around 0.8, reaching a peak of 1.477; it was a lucky find, and I’m satisfied! Additionally, MEGADROP is coming soon; friends who want to receive rewards need to complete tasks or hold BNB periodically!
Lastly, let’s talk about Ethereum (ETH); it’s slightly stronger than Bitcoin, expected to fluctuate between 3400 and 3700.
Now let’s take a look at today’s BTC technical analysis: From the candlestick chart, the 1-hour level shows a decline, the 4-hour level is rising (but may consolidate or decline), the 12-hour level is rising, and the daily level is also rising. Today's resistance level is at 99,800, and the support level is at 95,200 US dollars.
Let’s take a look at the situation of altcoins again.
SOL recently rose to 217 dollars, and altcoins generally saw about a 10% increase.
One point worth noting is that the possibility of the SOL spot ETF being approved is gradually increasing; everyone should pay attention to January 25 as a key date.
On the prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of the SOL spot ETF being approved has risen to 86%. This may indicate that someone knows something in advance and has laid out positions early, which could also be one reason for SOL's strong recent performance.
Our group has also been continuously bottom-fishing SOL recently, let's see if there will be any surprises coming up.
Currently, there are four main new spot ETFs, ranked from high to low in expected approval probability: SOL, XRP, LTC, and DOGE.
BIO opened last night; I also reminded in my article yesterday. I wonder if everyone paid attention?
With BIO having such a high market cap, half of the coins donated earlier are already in circulation, and the other half is still locked. I feel now is not the right time to take over; it’s better to wait for the market to wash out before deciding.
Let’s take a look at PNUT:
After this dip, PNUT washed away most retail investors and has now directly surged to the 0.8 position. The breakout suppression mentioned on the 2nd has occurred, with a massive increase starting yesterday; let’s see if it can directly break through 1 dollar.
As for those who criticize retail investors, don’t take it too seriously; when the market arrives, retail investors still can’t help but rush in. They may complain verbally, but deep down, they are still willing to buy.
NEIRO made a small profit of 25%!
Winter transferred over 1.8 million NEIRO at 2 AM; I just sold around 54, feeling good with a 25% return.
Is this going to be a slaughter before the new year?
ZAILGO's airdrop operation yesterday directly boosted community goodwill and attracted many retail investors, but today it immediately started selling off, giving no buffer period.
However, I think this project is not that simple. Those who want to bottom-fish shouldn't rush; the market cap is still over 40 million.
I missed it the first time anyway, so I don’t mind missing it again. Based on the principle that the harder it falls, the stronger it rises, let it drop a bit more, and then consider entering when the consolidation range appears.
Recently, it’s worth paying a bit more attention to on-chain projects; there are quite good opportunities to make money on-chain, and many good projects are still emerging.
1. buzz, doing AI + DeFi projects
Dev jsonhedman once won first place in Microsoft’s generative AI hackathon, and this project’s market cap skyrocketed to 40 million within a few hours. I remember when I first saw its code, the market cap was only 4 million; truly, being a step slow means missing out. The market has now entered a stage of 'get on board first, then research'; if you couldn't get on board in time, you'll have to wait for the next opportunity.
2. sandy, doing AI video rendering
This is also a big meme concept, it just launched yesterday, with the highest FDV reaching 33 million, now it's at 24 million. Asym, which does trading AI, also took off today, with FDV suddenly reaching 20 million.
3. swarms, zailgo, mcs
The big brother behind these three projects is the same person, and their price increases are almost synchronous. Swarms' FDV has already surged to 200 million; just a week ago, it was only 20 million, truly growing rapidly into a small blue chip. Zailgo is a framework protocol, and it has been abstracting on Twitter; today it doubled, and FDV is now at 64 million.
I mentioned AI Agents in the group earlier; today I analyzed internally why Binance only lists AI Agents' contracts, as many projects’ FDV exceeds the liquidity of the pool. Projects like AI16z and virtual with market caps in the hundreds of millions will only be listed on spot after Binance has accumulated enough positions.
Compared to these, I actually feel that AI memes like goat, which have been in a continuous decline on Binance futures, might appear on spot exchanges sooner. Quality AI Agents with FDV between 50 million and 500 million have a chance to be listed on Binance spot in the future.
I’ve compiled some high-quality AI-related coins; here are a few I selected (these projects should all be listed on Binance later):
1. Virtual series:
aixbt, game, luna, vader, trust
2. AI16z ecosystem:
Eliza, degenai, fxn, metav, aimonica
3. Three small ecosystems:
vvaifu, hat, CreatorBid, these three only need to choose the strongest leading coins.
4. Independent ecosystem projects:
griffain, zerebro, fai, arc, zailgo, alch, swarms, snai, trisig, etc.
Be a step ahead: Everyone can now adjust their positions to these altcoins; basically, this round of the bull market's beta return can be obtained. If you feel 'altcoin season' has arrived based on emotions and account feelings, remember that’s the time to exit, not to continue buying. Smart people understand this.
Fan Q&A:
Is now a good time for major to enter the market?
For me, if the price is in the middle of the range, I won't enter the market; the cost-effectiveness is too poor.
Either wait for the price to rebound at the bottom boundary of the range (around 0.53) to enter, or wait for the price to break through the upper boundary of the range (around 0.68), then decide whether to chase the breakout or wait for a pullback to enter.
Chillguy's support and resistance levels:
According to Bitget's K-line data, the price has already broken through the resistance level. Now I can only provide you with two TPs (target prices), which have been marked on the chart; you can check them yourself.
Can ORDIs and SATs be entered now?
Ordi and Sats have basically been washed out for a year, many people have lost confidence. Some left early, while others are still stuck.
However, I still bought some ORDIs, just a little, buying when no one was paying attention, not leaving my position empty. Mainly, I feel it has been stagnant for a long time, and it’s time for a rotation!
The best cost-effective range is around 10 million to 20 million. Too cheap assets can easily drop to zero with no guarantee; but if the assets are too expensive, they lose cost-effectiveness, the entry cost is too high, and the risks are great.
ACT, ai16z, SWARMS, ARC, these hot projects can basically be bought with market caps around 10 million to 20 million. At that time, the manipulators are unlikely to easily dump their holdings.
To achieve this, a lot of money was spent in the early stages. This is the best time for accumulation, which is the most suitable moment for retail investors to build positions.
Insights from playing memes over the past few months: only two types of people made money.
The first type is diamond hands — those who stick to their favored memes no matter what. No matter how the manipulators wash the market, they remain steadfast and wait until their expectations are met before selling.
The second type is quick in and out — not considering the overall situation, just looking at profits, seizing opportunities whenever they arise, and selling when profits are available; selling early often leads to profits.
The 80/20 rule always exists; 80% of people want to trade in swings. When they see a rise, they think this asset is gold, possibly pulling up to 5B or 10B, thinking they want to be diamond hands, only to panic sell when a downward candle appears. Losing a bit on each project accumulates into a big loss.
Lastly, let’s summarize the important news recently:
1. According to Bitget market data, STG briefly hit 0.5 USDT, currently priced at 0.4856 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 24.24%.
2. MicroStrategy announced plans to raise up to 2 billion dollars through the issuance of preferred stock as part of its '21/21 plan,' aimed at raising 42 billion dollars in three years (with 21 billion in equity and fixed income each). The purpose of this issuance is to allow MicroStrategy to continue strengthening its balance sheet and acquire more Bitcoin, with the issuance expected to take place in the first quarter of 2025.
3. According to monitoring, 50,794,343 USDC were minted by USDC Treasury 7 hours ago.
4. According to Bitget market data, DEGEN is currently priced at 0.0133 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 37.36%.
5. According to Dex Screener data, YNE briefly broke through 0.07 USDT, hitting an all-time high, currently quoted at 0.068 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 65.53%. YNE is the native token of yesnoerror, which uses OpenAI’s o1 model and token-supported DeSci AI agents to analyze mathematical errors and discrepancies in scientific papers.
