Do not look at 30-day data; it is useless. Look at 1d, 3d, and at most 7d. The lifecycle of altcoin pumps is very short. The number of trades is the trading volume because large orders will be split into many smaller orders by algorithms. One million is not just one trade but a considerable number of trades. For example, you will see that the number of trades for AGLD has been huge these days. Open interest is the most important for altcoins. You see that the funding statistics are based on active market orders of buying and selling, but market orders will be digested and consolidated by limit orders, so open interest is the most accurate.
In fact, the market cap of coins is also not very useful; apart from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple, the money needed to pump is roughly the same.
How to know immediately when a coin is being pumped
1. Liquidation statistics include rankings for 1 hour, 4 hours, etc. The liquidity of altcoins comes entirely from contracts. Coins with funding will have a lot of liquidations, and having liquidations is a good thing as it proves that market makers have added liquidity. This coin has volume and counterparties.
Spot trading is just used by market makers to adjust funding rates, for example, raising the spot price to collect funding rates from airdrops.
2. Open interest for contracts. You filter the big data for contracts with open interest greater than 10 million and less than 300 million, arranged by a 24-hour cycle.
Contracts less than 10 million prove to be single-player coins; they don’t get played and can suddenly surge or plummet. Transaction amounts less than 100 million USD are also single-player games. Contracts with open interest in the billions cannot be pumped and are half-alive. Generally, the process of pumping altcoins starts from 20-30 million in open interest, rising to over 100 million, and then declining to end operations.
3. Fund flow statistics, also known as CVD. The principle is to arrange the buying and selling of active market orders according to time cycles. You may have seen it on X or BN Square, where someone falsely claims this is the main data, charging a hundred USD monthly membership fee. By arranging it according to time cycles, you can quickly discover which coins are receiving funds, but CVD is only useful in the rising phase because market orders will be digested and consolidated by limit orders, and during declines, some may even increase.
Generally, the CVD for altcoins will rise from positive 10 to positive 100, and then end the operation.
For altcoins, it is completely controlled by a single market maker for short-term funding, so all technical analysis is useless. Only the direction of funds can be observed because the most money is in their hands, allowing them to do as they please. A single market maker is both good and bad; when they pump, it is a real pump, and when they drop, it is a real drop. There is a risk factor: Bitcoin fluctuates with the US stock market, and altcoins follow Bitcoin's fluctuations at a second level. Sometimes when Bitcoin drops by 1%, altcoins can explode on the spot.
The core logic is that when you discover a capable market maker is coming to pump, there is ample liquidity, and there is a lot of money on the table to open the market. Then buy during their pullback, and don't use high leverage, or you won't be able to hold. Shorting is very difficult. Shorting is generally just fuel; declines also require money. Coins without money won't rise or fall; only coins that have been pumped by large funds will fall. However, it's very hard to gauge the top; there is only one situation to try: if it has risen a lot, and then the funding rate increases significantly and open interest increases, while the price gradually declines—not a sudden drop. That is, follow the short when the market maker is shorting; generally, avoid shorting.
Many times, buying points are discovered through trial and error. All data for cryptocurrencies comes from the public APIs of exchanges, so having CoinGlass and CoinAnk is enough; both are free, with CoinAnk being slightly better.
Why isn't the stock market making money? Many of the stocks that are being speculated on are driven up by retail investors. You might say they have some money, but do they have the strength of a market maker? Such large players in altcoins can be directly killed.
Making money from trading: luck > talent > looking at data > playing around
Recently, there is also an insider coin news, expected to open soon in the next few days, leaving 333 to get on board.
