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Bull market escape signal indicator list (simplified version) 1-03
Reject noise and wait patiently, the bull market is still continuing.
Today I read Goldman Sachs' latest forecast report for 2025 (the full text is 14,000 words, and I read 3 articles to summarize ten points for you)
First, let's talk about the key points: the Fed's interest rate cut nodes and US inflation, employment and GDP
1️⃣GDP growth forecast: Goldman Sachs expects US GDP growth to reach 2.4% in 2025, slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 2.0%, mainly driven by domestic private demand.

2️⃣Federal Reserve policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the final interest rate will reach 3.5-3.75%. They are: a 25 basis point cut in March, followed by two more cuts in June and September.

3️⃣Core PCE inflation rate: Core PCE inflation is expected to decline from 2.8% to 2.1% by the end of 2025, and may rise to 2.4% if tariffs are taken into account.

4️⃣Consumer spending: Consumer spending growth is expected to remain solid, supported by a healthy labor market and wealth effects.

5️⃣Labor market: The labor market is expected to remain strong, with the unemployment rate falling slightly to 4% by the end of 2025.

6️⃣Policy changes: Policy changes under the Trump administration are expected to have a slight drag on growth in 2025, but will have a positive impact in 2026.

7️⃣Immigration policy: Net immigration is expected to slow to about 750,000 per year, and tighter immigration policies will have an impact on the labor market and economic growth.

8️⃣Tariff policy: The United States is expected to impose tariffs on Chinese imports and automobiles, but does not expect to implement comprehensive general tariffs.

9️⃣Fiscal deficit: Congress is not expected to significantly reduce the main deficit, and the 2017 tax cuts are expected to be fully extended.

🔟Economic and financial outlook: Provides detailed forecast data including GDP, consumer spending, housing market, inflation, labor market and government finances.

I checked Goldman Sachs' historical forecasts, and the accuracy rate in the past four years is 78%. You can refer to it. Generally speaking, it is more bullish than bearish for the crypto market.
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