BTC continues to hover within a range, with prices ready to break the $100,000 mark at any time, and it will continue to twist within this range.
From the hourly level: Bitcoin is currently at the opening position of this volume drop candle, around $97,200, which is also a densely held area. If it can stabilize above $97,000, it will have significant implications for the future.
Bitcoin has not completely broken through yet; two possible trends are predicted: a breakout or a pullback.
(1) Falling back again
If it falls below $96,200, it could form a double top, and in that case, we would look for a further pullback.
(2) Strongly stabilizing
As long as we strongly stabilize today and break through this line, forming a higher high, then this will be a very good entry point. Next, we will be looking at $99,000, which has a very clear trend.
Bitcoin continues to hover within a range; currently, this position will continue to grind. It is a rebound of wave B, and the market still needs to experience a process of bouncing and falling to build a bottom, insisting that there is still a wave C decline to come.
We need to see how this triangle will unfold next.
Currently, there are no short conditions; the larger trend is very clear, indicating bullish sentiment. The first trading day has shown strong upward momentum, starting on a good note. Moreover, if a drop occurs, the next range is also very clear, which is within this range. We have two lines within this range that can serve as buy zones.
(1) Around $94,600: the previous position of a small double bottom structure.
(2) Between $91,600 and $93,000: the lower edge of the rectangular range.
Let's look at some on-chain data to corroborate our analysis.
(1) Bitcoin's long and short positions
Bitcoin's long and short positions are relatively balanced. There are slightly more long positions, so there is a possibility of a final clearance of these short positions. After clearing the leverage, a spike may occur. If a leverage clearance happens, it might spike and then quickly rebound, so we need to place a limit order here.
(2) Supply of USDC and USDT
In the past 24 hours, the supply of USDT has further decreased by 190 million, while the supply of USDC has surged by 750 million, resulting in a total increase of 560 million for USDC + USDT. The marginal improvement in liquidity provides necessary conditions for the bullish trend in the crypto market.
In summary, Bitcoin has only one last drop left, so the remaining bullets in everyone's hands are at the position I mentioned. Be prepared for the final bottom-fishing, which is expected between January 20 and January 27, the most panicked adjustment phase, with a predicted restart around early February, gathering strength for the next big surge. Before that, we can only control our positions through washing and oscillating trends.
Finally, a brief mention of altcoins: Recently, with no hotspots in the market, funds have effectively flowed into on-chain AI hype. Now that the market has somewhat returned, there will be a short-term outflow of funds from these sectors. However, they still remain strong targets, so we need to be mindful of timing when reallocating our portfolios.
