Don’t just see the benefits of Trump’s coming to power this year, but also understand the potential macro risks
Risk 1-Debt risk caused by fiscal deficit
Trump’s policy->Good for the stock market, but will increase fiscal deficit->The increase in fiscal deficit will make US debt a threat
The issuance of US debt has increased significantly, exacerbating the market’s concerns about the sustainability of US debt and selling US debt
Risk 2-Trade war
The risk of trade war is not Trump’s policy but the counterattack from the East. The trend of US stocks in 2019 is also tortuous
Risk 3-Recurrence of inflation (long-term risk)
If inflation recurs, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again, and the United States will reappear the risk of recession.
The first two risks have a high probability of occurrence, but they are short-term risks and have a small impact. The last risk has a low probability of occurrence, but the impact is huge. When there is this momentum, the market is likely to speculate.
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