Yesterday's analysis pointed out that Bitcoin has performed slightly stronger in the past one or two days, and market sentiment has warmed up, but the resistance to rising is large, and the pressure level is 98,000. If it breaks through and stabilizes, it can rise again. The actual market trend is consistent with the forecast. Pressure level: 97,800 close to/98,000. If it rises and falls, the support level is around 94,000/95,000. Falling below the support level of 90,000/92,000 is the bottom line of defense for this round of rise. Bitcoin's trend has improved, but it has not entered a strong unilateral bull trend.
Ethereum: Support level: 3426, pressure level: 3530, Falling below: 3300/3350
Today is Friday. The previous analysis mentioned that it will rise after waiting for the indicator to be repaired. The daily level risk can be lifted before it can rise completely. The current rebound is caused by the repair of the indicator.
Next, let's discuss the stage of Bitcoin in the bull market. Bitcoin has a production reduction every four years, and the bull-bear cycle is about four years, which can be subdivided into stages. The stages that have been experienced include:
September 2023 is stage one; January to May 2024 is stage two, driven by Bitcoin production cuts and ETFs; September and November 2024 are stage three, and the US interest rate cut cycle and Trump's election drive the market to a climax.
Now we are entering stage four of the 2025 market. Although there are no major events, there are several small positives, such as the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate cuts, Trump's inauguration on January 20, the SEC's attitude change, and ftX's capital compensation inflows. 70% of the positives of the 2025 market have been released.
The fourth stage may last from January to June, and it can be speculated that the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc. and the increase in altcoins. However, the bull market may end. If there are major negative or risk events in June and July, and regulatory policies are tightened, the bull market may end. You need to seize opportunities and pay attention to risks