what happen?
According to data from the forecasting platform Polymarket, the probability of the Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 has increased from 77% to 86%.
Market views believe that after Trump takes office, he will be a boost to the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs.
If the Solana ETF wants to be successfully listed, it must adopt a "Grantor Trust" structure similar to the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and avoid being regarded as securities, otherwise it will face more stringent regulatory requirements.
Polymarket predicts Solana ETF has an 86% chance of listing in the U.S.
According to data released by the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket on New Year's Day, the preliminary probability of the Solana ETF being listed in the United States in 2025 is 77%. However, Matthew Sigel, head of research at asset management company VanEck, responded that this probability has been "Underestimation".
As of the time of writing, the predicted probability as of January 3 has indeed reached 86%. Foreign media (Cointelegraph) analyzes that Siegel's optimistic attitude reflects the industry's expectations for more cryptocurrency ETFs to be listed in the United States, especially after the election of crypto-supporting Trump as President.
Trump has stated that he hopes to make the United States 'the world’s crypto capital'.
Trump's presidency could be a driving force for the Solana ETF.
The listing of the Solana ETF has attracted significant industry attention. In June of last year, VanEck and other competitors such as 21Shares submitted related applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but were questioned by the SEC in August, which pointed out that Solana could be classified as a security rather than a commodity.
If cryptocurrencies are considered securities, the establishment and listing of ETFs will become more complicated, as strict compliance with U.S. securities laws will be required. Institutions issuing ETFs must complete more compliance processes, such as submitting detailed documents, registering applications, and ensuring that transactions with investors comply with securities law requirements.
This controversy has affected the ETF launch plans of several asset management firms, but market views suggest that a Trump victory would boost the listing of other types of cryptocurrency ETFs. Moreover, as early as after the November 2024 election, Siegel had predicted that the probability of the United States approving the Solana ETF in 2025 is 'extremely high'.
(Cointelegraph) points out that the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs currently listed in the United States use a special structure called 'Grantor Trust', which is suitable for funds that simply hold a single commodity. If the Solana ETF wants to be successfully listed, it must adopt a similar structure and avoid being classified as a security; otherwise, it will face stricter regulatory requirements.
Whether the Solana ETF can be successfully listed will be a key point in 2025 when Trump officially takes office as President of the United States.
Source: Cointelegraph, Coinpedia
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