Altcoin season, or altseason, is a period in which altcoins experience stronger growth than Bitcoin. In other words, this is a time when Bitcoin ( $BTC ) price increases, but its dominance ( BTC.D ) decreases. We will consider the start of altseason to be the point in the cycle when Bitcoin dominance reaches a local peak, and the end of altseason will be marked by a new all-time high for the TOTAL2 index (total market capitalization of the top 125 coins, excluding Bitcoin).
Looking Through the Lens of Past Alternative Seasons
So far, we have only seen two altcoin seasons, while there have been three Bitcoin cycles. This is largely because the first Bitcoin cycle did not have a full altcoin market. It is hard to believe, but the total market cap of all altcoins remained under $1 billion for a long time! It was not until March 1, 2017 that we saw the first significant altcoin growth wave. At that time, Bitcoin dominance fell from around 96% and in less than a year, it reached around 36% on January 5, 2018. Bitcoin has since relinquished about 60% of its market dominance to altcoins, resulting in a total altcoin market cap (TOTAL2) of $470 billion!
The first major altcoin season lasted 310 days, with the index increasing by about $470 billion — a 56,425% (or 564x) increase.
The second global altcoin season occurred in the next cycle. At the start, the total altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL2) was $225 billion. On January 3, 2021, Bitcoin dominance, which peaked at around 73%, began to decline slowly, eventually falling sharply until reaching its lowest point on September 8, 2022. However, only half of these 614 days of decline count as altcoin season, as the other half occurred during Bitcoin's bear phase. The peak of the TOTAL2 index occurred on November 10, 2021, which coincided exactly with Bitcoin's price peak.
In total, the second altcoin season lasted 309 days, with the index increasing by $1.5 trillion — an increase of 650% (or 6.5x).
What’s interesting is the coincidence here: both alternate seasons from different cycles lasted almost exactly the same amount of time, day by day! The first alternate season lasted 310 days, and the second alternate season lasted 309 days. But that’s not even the most surprising discovery we’ve made.
The magical effect of Halving on cycle time
In our previous study, we looked at the total duration of a market cycle. Let me reiterate: we found that in all three previous cycles, halvings occurred 62% of the time into the cycle.
It seems that halvings really do have some kind of “magic” when it comes to market structure. Both of the global altcoin seasons we described happened at the same time relative to the halving date.
In cycle (II), the halving event took place on July 9, 2016, and the altcoin season started on March 1, 2017 — 235 days later.
In cycle (III), the halving event took place on May 11, 2020, and the altcoin season started on January 3, 2021 — 237 days later.
And here's the fun part:
In the previous article, we predicted that the top of the current cycle (IV), based on the pattern of previous cycles, would occur around October 18, 2025.
Now, if we take the halving date of this cycle, April 19, 2024, and add 235 days, we arrive at December 10, 2024, which marks the potential start of the next altseason. Very close to the trend acceleration point we predicted earlier. But what’s even more interesting is that if we add 310 days (the typical altseason duration from previous cycles), we get… October 18, 2025!
So, using two different approaches, analyzing price action on different instruments (BTC, TOTAL2, BTC.D), we arrived at the same date for the cycle top: October 18, 2025. Based on our analysis, this would be a simultaneous top for both Bitcoin and the TOTAL2 index.
To summarize the timing of the replacement season in the current cycle, based on the pattern of previous seasons:
The altcoin season is expected to begin on December 10, 2024, about 235 days after the halving (when we could also see a new peak in Bitcoin dominance).
The altcoin season will last for 310 days and end when Bitcoin reaches its growth peak on October 18, 2025.
Note that this is not a prediction but the result of an objective analysis of the cyclical market structure. There is no guarantee that the patterns of previous cycles will repeat themselves exactly, so do not take these dates as set in stone.
The timing is clear, but what will Altcoin season bring to Altcoin growth?
If we look at the top 10 performing projects from the previous cycle, a pattern emerges - most of the coins that performed well in the third year of the cycle (2020) had parabolic moves in the final year (2021):
Of course, there are exceptions (like SAND and KDA), but overall, the previous cycle showed that it makes more sense to bet on relatively strong players than to hunt for “dark horses”. It is likely that the current cycle will follow a similar logic, with strong projects continuing to dominate.
Who are the main competitors for Parabolic growth in this cycle?
If we use the table and filters on CryptoRank.io to sort all coins by year-to-date (YTD) price change and add a filter for market cap above $100 million, we see that 7 of the 10 strongest coins this year are meme coins.
From a rational standpoint, we have reason to believe that the altcoin season can bring the highest returns to the leading companies in the field.
However, if you're hesitant about investing in meme coins or prefer tokens from larger tech projects, let's take a look at this year's top 10 projects with market capitalizations above $1 billion, not including meme coins:
Conclusion
In summary, let's analyze the timing and logic of the previous cycles and answer the following key questions:
When will altseason start?
According to our calculations, it will start 235 days after the halving, which is December 10, 2024.How long will it last?
According to our estimates, it will last for 310 days, until October 18, 2025.
Which coins will perform best during alt season?
Most likely the coins that performed well before the alt season. Currently, the main candidates for the biggest gains are the top meme coins, along with projects in the Blockchain, AI infrastructure, and CeFi categories.
Let's hope this cycle repeats the structure of previous cycles and we witness the long-awaited third global alt season.
