The net inflow of Bitcoin this year is 81 times that of the gold ETF, interpreting the signal of the funding rate turning negative!
Table of contents:
1. This week's large token unlock data;
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the weekly rise and fall of popular coins/sector capital flows;
3. Spot ETF capital inflow and outflow situation;
4. Analysis of on-chain BTC balance;
5. Interpretation of contract funding rates;
1. This week's large token unlock data;
Tokens such as SUI, OP, and ZETA will face large unlocks this week, among which:
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 64.19 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 2.19% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 270 million USD;
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8 AM on December 31, accounting for 2.32% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 58.6 million USD;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 53.89 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 9.35% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 32 million USD;
Beldex (BDX) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens at 8 AM on December 30, accounting for 4.78% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 26.1 million USD;
Sleepless AI (AI) will unlock approximately 23.21 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 17.85% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 14.6 million USD;
dydx (DYDX) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8 AM on January 1, accounting for 1.17% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 12.8 million USD;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3 PM on January 1, accounting for 0.44% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 12.1 million USD.
This week, pay attention to these tokens due to the bearish effects brought by unlocking, avoid spot trading, and seek short opportunities in contracts. Among them, ZETA and SUI have a large proportion and scale of unlocked circulation, so pay more attention.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the weekly rise and fall of popular coins/sector capital flows
According to CoinAnk data, in the past week, the crypto market, categorized by concept sectors, saw significant net inflows concentrated in several major areas including Arbitrum ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, Binance Smart Contract, and AI. In the past week, many tokens have also experienced significant rotational increases. The top 500 by market capitalization are as follows: PHA, AGLD, NCT, AIXBT, POND, and VIRTUAL, among others, have relatively high increases.
3. Spot ETF capital inflow and outflow situation.
CoinAnk data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF has been online for 50 weeks, and the holding amount of BlackRock's IBIT has increased from 2,621 in the first week to 552,555, completely absorbing the selling pressure of Grayscale's GBTC, which has seen its Bitcoin holdings drop from 619,200 in the first week to 206,860.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was previously the main channel for investors to enter the Bitcoin market, having accumulated a large amount of holdings before the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, with an initial holding of as much as 619,200 BTC. After transitioning to a spot ETF, it directly inherits the previously large asset base. The management fee rate of GBTC (1.5%) is higher than its competitors, leading investors to choose to redeem GBTC shares and switch to other ETFs after the launch of the spot ETF, resulting in a phenomenon of fund flow between BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has purchased 511,314 Bitcoins this year, with the total on-chain holding amounting to approximately 1.129 million BTC, accounting for 5.70% of the current BTC supply, and the on-chain holding value reaching approximately 106.8 billion USD. Meanwhile, the net inflow of the gold ETF in 2024 is 454 million USD, while the Bitcoin ETF net inflow is 36.8 billion USD, which is 81 times that of the gold ETF.
We believe that the launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF has had a significant impact on the market. The increase in holdings of BlackRock's IBIT not only demonstrates the ETF's tremendous appeal to the market but also reflects investors' shift in Bitcoin investment channels. The US spot Bitcoin ETF accounts for 5.70% of the current BTC supply, highlighting the ETF's important role in the Bitcoin market. The net inflow of Bitcoin ETF is 81 times that of the gold ETF, which underscores Bitcoin's attractiveness and growth potential as an emerging asset class. Bitcoin ETFs are reshaping the investment landscape, providing investors with more convenient investment channels while also significantly boosting market demand.
4. On-chain BTC balance first recovers and then decreases.
CoinAnk data shows that in the past 24 hours, 5,143.46 BTC have flowed out of exchange wallets, 1,656.99 BTC in the past 7 days, and 68,430.63 BTC in the past 30 days. Currently, the total balance of exchange wallets is 2,241,041.19 BTC. The recent overall change in BTC balance has been a recovery followed by a decrease.
These data indicate that investors are more inclined to transfer Bitcoin to personal wallets, reducing their holdings on exchanges to minimize potential security risks and enhance capital control. The recent overall change in BTC balance has been a recovery followed by a decrease, which may be related to the market's dual expectations of short-term price volatility and long-term value storage for Bitcoin. This trend may indicate increased confidence in holding Bitcoin, while also potentially impacting market liquidity and price stability.
5. Interpretation of BTC contract funding rates.
According to CoinAnk contract data, after three and a half months, the funding rate has turned negative, possibly reflecting a significant change in market sentiment. The funding rate is an indicator of market participants' demand for Bitcoin futures contracts. When the rate is negative, it indicates that the market may be experiencing excessive selling or shorting pressure, and short holders need to pay fees to long holders.
This shift may be related to the market's short-term bearish expectations for Bitcoin prices, or it may indicate that long holders are decreasing while short holders are increasing. Additionally, this could also signal a market adjustment, as investors may be reassessing their holding strategies. Given the increasing market volatility, this change in funding rates is worth close attention, as it may indicate a shift in market trends or upcoming price fluctuations.
