Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown signs of reduced trading volume, narrowed price fluctuations, and converging structural shapes, indicating that the market is about to undergo a change, with the direction leaning upwards. Contrary to some pessimistic expectations in the market, I believe that Bitcoin's price is unlikely to drop significantly to around $86,000. Before Trump took office, Bitcoin's trend may present the following three scenarios:
The Elliott triangle adjustment wave has been completed: Bitcoin may have completed its adjustment near the 0.236 retracement level of the Fibonacci ascending channel, around $91,500. The oscillation duration in this scenario may be relatively long, but it will then initiate an upward trend, expected to challenge historical highs.
Oscillating and accumulating strength above 0.236: Bitcoin may also oscillate around slightly above $91,500, accumulating strength for subsequent upward movements. After New Year’s Day, the market may initiate an upward trend.
Constructing a head and shoulders bottom reversal structure: in a more pessimistic scenario, Bitcoin's price may drop to near the 0 axis, around $86,000, thus forming a head and shoulders bottom reversal structure. Once the structure is completed, Bitcoin will re-enter the upward channel.
Considering the changes in the strength of both bulls and bears, I personally lean towards the first scenario, where Bitcoin will break through historical highs with an upward oscillation after completing the Elliott triangle adjustment wave.
The pullback cycle of Ethereum and altcoins is nearing its end, marking the imminent final phase of this bull market. Looking back at history, from Trump's election to December 16, the market experienced about a month and a half of rising period, with a cumulative increase of about 75%. Subsequently, the market entered a pullback phase, reaching a pullback of 22% within less than half a month, considering significant fluctuations. This pullback pattern is quite typical in bull markets, regarded as a halftime break in the bull market process. Both Ethereum and altcoins usually experience similar pullback cycles in the upward channel of the bull market.
Referring to the pullback situation from January 12 to January 25, 2024, when the market pulled back by about 20%, the time frame is similar to the current situation. This indicates that the current market is in a phase similar to that period, which is a normal adjustment in a bull market. Based on historical patterns, we can expect that after the pullback ends, the market will re-enter a path of accelerated growth, bringing richer returns to investors.
The panic index has reached its lowest value since October.
After experiencing half a month of washing and shaking, ETH's trading volume has reached its lowest point since Trump's election, and even the panic index from Coinglass has reached its lowest value since October. Especially after continuous 'painting doors', this wave of washing is nearing its end.
Recently, the Ethereum market has frequently exhibited oscillating trends, and this 'painting door' phenomenon contains two layers of meaning.
The primary goal is to wash out the chips through the market's violent fluctuations, allowing those investors with weak convictions or short-term traders to exit, thereby clearing obstacles for the subsequent steady upward movement of the market.
Secondly, this oscillation also serves the purpose of testing the market, namely assessing the stability and loyalty of the remaining chips. The market hopes to understand how many investors genuinely believe in the long-term value of Ethereum, rather than merely chasing short-term fluctuations. Only when the market confirms that the remaining chips are stable enough can it have greater confidence in pushing prices further up in subsequent trends without worrying about triggering a massive sell-off.
The combined effect of this series of operations is reflected in the sharp decline in trading volume, marking the gradual completion of the market cleaning and testing phase, laying a more solid foundation for the subsequent market trend.
Continuous inflow of funds into the Ethereum ETF, with constant handovers of chips.
It can be confirmed that the new incoming funds are not coming from retail investors. This January of 2025 is similar to February of 2024, as Ethereum will welcome the final stage of the bull market, accelerating upward and then concluding.
The market share of Bitcoin is constantly declining.
The market share of Bitcoin is constantly declining, and this round of the bull market is nearly over! What remains is the time for Ethereum and altcoins, and it won't be too far off! 2026 will definitely be a freezing point year; seize the few remaining opportunities in 2025! ALL IN ETH and altcoins!
Today, the American coins led the surge, congratulations to XRP, XLM, and ADA. Ethereum is at the end of its triangular convergence; typically, after a sharp decline, the probability of the triangle converging downwards is higher, but altcoins have broken upwards first, and Ethereum is expected to break upwards this time. Hopefully, the altcoin season is truly upon us.
