In over 20 years of writing blogs, I have written many New Year's outlook posts like this. I've used many different approaches: sometimes discussing big themes, like last year; sometimes focusing on just one thing; and sometimes just making a bunch of predictions. This year, I'll adopt the latter approach because I enjoy it and it's fun.
1. By the end of 2025, Apple and Google will leverage their existing market power to surpass OpenAI/ChatGPT in consumer AI.
2. By the end of 2025, Waymo's ride-hailing volume in San Francisco and Los Angeles will surpass that of Uber.
3. In 2025, in certain business categories in the United States, the amount of interbank direct payments will exceed the amount of credit card transaction payments.
4. A decentralized clinical trial attracts millions of participants and achieves good results, while the FDA under Trump's leadership not only approves the related drugs but also praises this trial method.
5. Dyson launches a housekeeping robot named Judy, which becomes a huge success, selling millions of units.
6. NFT art that was abandoned in 2024 makes a strong comeback, with the Museum of Modern Art (MOMA) acquiring the 6529 Art Museum at an undisclosed price.
7. In 2025, an AI doctor with Mr. Rogers-like characteristics will provide free medical services to millions of patients.
8. A Bitcoin mining company collaborates with a wind farm in Newfoundland and a grid-scale battery storage facility to power an AI data center, showcasing a new model of sustainable infrastructure.
9. Arizona's Education Savings Account (ESA) program attracts over 25% of the state's K-12 students, leading to the closure of several local schools.
10. An AI produces an animated feature film that receives an Oscar nomination.
11. New York City launches an air taxi service, providing an alternative commuting option to taking the subway.
12. TikTok transforms all videos into memecoins that can be traded on decentralized exchanges around the world.
13. USV's chief AI robot goes rogue, gains access to USV's crypto wallet, and begins seed investments, one of which ultimately yields substantial returns.
"Buckle up," 2025 is going to be a crazy year.