Some say that the cryptocurrency market in 2024 will be very difficult. In reality, for those who are not very familiar with the cryptocurrency market, it indeed will be quite challenging.
Let's take a look at BTC's trend. What kind of market have we really experienced since January 1?
BTC's price has risen from 42,000 to now 93,000, with an overall increase of 110%. If you didn't enter the market before February, or if your total capital hasn't appreciated by 1.1 times, then you haven't outperformed the market.
Especially for altcoins, during the 8 months of BTC's volatility, they all experienced a prolonged downturn. It can be said that the vast majority of people made gains in indices or even lost money.
Of course, if your timing is wrong and you enter between March and October, if you miss the opportunity in November, your investments in 2024 will still result in losses rather than gains.
Looking back at the market in 2024, if you didn’t catch the trend of artificial intelligence and memes at the beginning of the year, then congratulations! Even if you catch the opportunity in November, you will likely end up in losses!
Because human nature's weaknesses drive a person to seize every opportunity, before November 3, you will keep fiddling, constantly buying and selling. It won't be until one day when your overall position has suffered a loss of up to 40% that you'll be afraid to look at your account, allowing the losses to gradually widen. This is the essence: profits will take care of themselves, while losses will not! You will let them grow until one moment when you impulsively cut all your losses, just to find you sold at the bottom.
This has also resulted in the market in November not being sufficient to make up for previous losses.
So for the vast majority of people, 2024 is simply too cruel.
Even for those with some market experience, they still have to face multiple peaks and troughs; gains and losses, gains and losses. It is much harder to gain than before. The vast majority of people are saying, 'This coin is getting harder and harder.'
That is the overall situation for 2024!
Next, let's talk about now. 2024 is the Year of the Wood Dragon, and 2025 is the Year of the Wood Snake. Thousands of years ago, Zhuangzi may have unintentionally described today's market, calling it the transformation of dragons and snakes.
The transformation of dragons and snakes is destined to coexist with opportunities and risks. Some people are destined to transform into dragons, while others will become skeletons in the maritime map of the cryptocurrency circle. This is the eternal law of the market: those who seize the opportunity will transform, while those who do not will become cannon fodder.
Just like the market always has 1% winners and 99% losers, precisely 99% of people think they are in that 1%. They want to get a piece of the action in the market, unaware that they are just a piece of meat in the bowl. This is a cruel truth, and it is precisely for this reason that the speculative market has risen.
In the end, the market still follows the 80/20 rule. The way of heaven reduces excess and supplements the insufficient. The way of man is not the same; it does not compensate for the insufficient with the excess. The more one has, the more they will take from the less!
The current market is filled with two voices; this marks the beginning of crisis and opportunity. One voice says BTC is floating high; the other says altcoins are hovering low. The crisis comes from falling from high, while opportunity arises from rising from low, which is particularly testing for people now.
It will no longer be like before, where altcoins and BTC moved in tandem. As long as you research BTC well, you could earn money by freely investing in altcoins. Now, you need to discover potential coins while also preventing a sudden crash in BTC. You must enter before altcoins rise and exit before BTC collapses. The uncertainties are increasing, and whether you can seize the opportunity becomes particularly crucial!
This is the current situation. Now let's talk about 2025!
The situation in 2025 is that the overall real economy is not good, while BTC, although a virtual economy, will still be constrained by the real economy. Instead of saying it is the real economy, it is better to say it is the pressure from the US stock market.
Anyone following Trump knows he is a supporter of virtual currencies. However, take what politicians say with a grain of salt; don't take it too seriously. Just like American political parties, they only take responsibility for the public during election campaigns; Trump is no different!
Especially since Trump is back in office, the US stock market is likely to show some strange behavior. Let's take a look at the Dow Jones index.
The price dropped from 45,000 points to 42,000 points. Before Trump takes office, there may be a significant downturn in the US stock market, which he might not be able to resolve before taking office. Therefore, the US stock market could be the biggest potential crisis for the cryptocurrency circle.
If Trump cannot provide good policies for virtual currencies upon taking office, allowing them to gather popularity once again, then the market has already bought what it needed to buy, and those who needed to be in the market have already entered. Another downturn could happen at any time, a developing crisis, and a bottleneck crisis. Either we will rise again and create greater glory or burst!
What I mentioned above is the crisis aspect; as for the opportunity aspect!
1. The larger trend will still push upwards; how much it can rise depends on the actual market conditions in the future.
2. The price of altcoins is too cheap, just like circulating goods. No one wants to sell them cheaply.
3. The aspirations of retail investors for the future; there are always some speculators unwilling to be ordinary.
Let's focus on the third point: your preferences can be your death trap. When the vast majority dream of a bull market in 2025, that 'bull' will come as expected. History is always similar, but the outcomes are vastly different. Speculators only need to pull lightly, and the vast majority of funds will flood into the market. Then with a slight pullback, most people will get trapped because retail investors are desperate. Even if it is a trap, they will still see warmth, just like the girl selling matches in Andersen's fairy tale!
If you are capital, you will continue to pursue this evil to the end. The article's content is limited. If everyone is interested, go learn about the Yian trading incident.
BTC initially formed a volatile range between 52,000 and 72,000, then surged upwards. Now, around 90,000, it has formed a selling pressure. Overall, the upward momentum has not been exhausted. The price around 92,000 has always been a strong support point, and the next support point is at 86,000. These two points will hold as long as there are no significant negative news. Give the market some buffer time; if it drops quickly to around 80,000, then you should dare to take a chance.
As for future trends, they depend on actual future situations. This is the most likely scenario I see; let's leave other possibilities as suspense!
Next, let's talk about the altcoin market. I'll briefly mention a few coins for your reference. This is a benefit for everyone. Regardless of whether you adopt them, I still want to say: 'Take your own risks.'
The welfare coins I mentioned earlier are some that I also hold, so please keep it quiet. Whether you choose them is your business. Whether I mention them is mine. I hope everyone benefits well in 2025!
The first thing I want to talk about is 'a sector—AI.' Artificial intelligence is a big trend, the trend among trends. The topic has not been fully explored, and there will surely be a day when it ignites. As for the coins in this sector, I believe I don't need to introduce them in detail; everyone knows better than I do!
The second sector is the metaverse sector: led by SAND and MANA. Over the past year, I have observed them accumulating at the bottom, and their prices will rise to a higher level. Isn't this an energy release? It indicates that there is a dragon beneath.
The third one is represented by Dogecoin and Shiba Inu. I have emphasized before that the value of Dogecoin lies in its topic; I won't elaborate on that. Let's talk about Shiba Inu. Although it was forced onto exchanges, it will become a higher target after this wave.
Human nature, the more one loses in a place, the more they remember which coin they bought without making a profit. In the end, when they miss out, they regret and feel sorry. When the market rises, they will chase it aggressively, preferring to be trapped rather than suffer the pain of missing out!
The fourth: the old coins led by XRP. There is an inclusive relationship here; ADA/XLM are bound together. Although they seem to be different teams, they are likely produced by the same team. This is just the beginning, and there will surely be another wave of small rhythms in the future!
The fifth sector is the ETH sector. I have never been optimistic about ETH and have not invested much in it. The only coins I invested in in the past were ARB/LDO/OP, which have been fluctuating. In any case, the investment was not much and didn't have a significant impact, so I decisively gave up later. However, I still have high hopes for LDO and OP. Even if I am optimistic, I don't necessarily have to buy; not buying doesn't mean it is not good, but rather that I have already made arrangements with other coins!
The general ideas for Bitcoin and altcoins have been shared. Next, let's discuss opportunities and challenges!
2025 will surely be a year of big ups and big downs. Only great volatility will bring great opportunities. BTC returning to 100,000 points is a sign of prosperity, while dropping below 100,000 points is a sign of decline. Therefore, during prosperous times, how should we seize this opportunity, and during declines, when should we pull out? This is something for everyone to ponder!
The last point: leave professional matters to professionals! Pay more attention to some foreign thoughts, only do what you love, and leave what you are not good at to professionals. Because the opportunities in a person's life are limited, typically 6-7 opportunities arise between the ages of 20-60. Each missed opportunity reduces the chances. The cost of trial and error is low, but the price of missing out is too high.
You don’t need to learn everything or be able to do everything. Just focus on doing your part well and shine in your area of expertise, just like Yuan Longping, who only focused on rice and surpassed others!
As for investing, it is not something that an ordinary person can learn in a year. The game of money is like commanding troops in battle; the situation changes rapidly. If you are not careful, you could face total annihilation, dead and unable to revive, a nation cannot be restored. Rather than worrying every day, it is better to leave professional matters to professionals!
I'll stop sharing here. Finally, I wish everyone a smooth and prosperous investment in the new year. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me!
