Bitcoin, with a history of over a decade, has always followed a distinct cycle: 3 years of strong increases, 1 year of significant decline. Historical price data at the beginning of each year shows a regular repetition of this cycle, providing us with a basis to predict the future.
Bitcoin Price Data at the Beginning of the Year (2015-2025)
• 2015: $314
• 2016: $434
• 2017: $1,019 (3rd year of increase, peaked at ~$20,000 by the end of the year)
• 2018: $15,321 (began to decline sharply, bottoming at ~$3,200 by the end of the year)
• 2019: $3,794
• 2020: $7,193
• 2021: $29,352 (3rd year of increase, peaked at ~$69,000 by the end of the year)
• 2022: $47,025 (began to decline sharply, bottoming at ~$15,500 by the end of the year)
• 2023: $16,630
• 2024: $42,660
• 2025: $93,500 (3rd year of the current cycle's increase).
Bitcoin Cycle Analysis
1. 3-Year Growth: Bitcoin typically increases continuously for 3 years, with the peak of the 3rd year being 3-20 times higher than the first year of the cycle.
• For example:
• Cycle 2015-2017: Peak ~$20,000 (about ~64 times the price at the beginning of 2015).
• Cycle 2019-2021: Peak ~$69,000 (about ~18 times the price at the beginning of 2019).
2. Sharp decline for 1 year: After reaching the peak, $BTC typically drops by 75-85% of its value, hitting the bottom in the 4th year of the cycle.
• For example:
• Year 2018: Bottom ~$3,200 (down 84% from peak ~$20,000).
• Year 2022: Bottom ~$15,500 (down 77% from peak ~$69,000).
3. Current:
• 2025: As the 3rd year of increase, Bitcoin could reach a significant peak by the end of 2025 or mid-2026.
• 2026: Likely to set the peak of the next cycle before a significant drop in 2027.
Predictions for the Peak in 2026 and the Bottom in 2027
Peak in 2026
Based on history, the peak in 2026 could be 3-10 times the price at the beginning of 2025.
• Price at the beginning of 2025: $93,500.
• Forecast peak in 2026:
• Low: $280,000 (3 times).
• High: $935,000 (10 times).
Bottom in 2027
After the peak in 2026, Bitcoin could decline by 75-85%, hitting the bottom in 2027.
• If the peak in 2026 is $280,000: The bottom in 2027 could be in the range of $42,000 - $70,000.
• If the peak in 2026 is $935,000: The bottom in 2027 could be in the range of $140,000 - $230,000.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently in the strong growth phase of the current cycle, and 2025-2026 promises to witness record prices, with the forecast peak ranging from $280,000 to $935,000. However, 2027 is expected to be a year of significant adjustment, with prices bottoming in the range of $42,000 to $230,000.
Investors should consider long-term strategies, preparing for both price increase opportunities and significant adjustment risks in the coming years.
