The British (Financial Times) released its annual forecast for a series of events in 2025 yesterday (31st), focusing on international politics, economy, energy and other issues, as well as the currently popular AI and Bitcoin. Dynamic Zone now compiles the original text as follows. (Preliminary summary: Galaxy 2025 cryptocurrency prediction: Bitcoin will reach $185,000 by the end of the year, ETH will exceed 5,500, and DeFi will explode) (Background supplement: Year-end prediction: 4 markets and 11 opportunities in 2025) Facing the new of the year, the British (Financial Times) released its annual forecast for a series of events in 2025 yesterday (31st), focusing on the economic policies of the US President-elect Trump after he came to power, the possibility of reconciliation in the Russia-Ukraine war, the United States The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this year, artificial intelligence (AI), Bitcoin, etc. are now compiled in the original text as follows. You are also welcome to browse) Taiwan Blockchain (Top 30 Most Influential People of the Year): 2025 Key Market Predictions, Web3 Trend Analysis 1. Will Trump launch a comprehensive tariff war? Overall, there is a high probability that it will. We can say that at least half of all U.S. imports will be subject to tariffs of at least 10% by the end of the year. No one can really read Trump, but he will certainly crack down on imports from China, which account for about 15% of total U.S. imports. 2. Will there be a truce between Ukraine and Russia? Yes. However, the United States must impose tougher sanctions and increase support for Kiev to persuade Moscow to seriously participate in peace negotiations. In exchange for a security environment with U.S. support, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will agree to Russia de facto rather than de jure control of the territory it currently occupies and attempt some territorial exchanges, although Ukraine's accession to NATO will ultimately be put on hold . 3. Will U.S. interest rates be lower at the end of the year than they are now? Won't. Trump’s tax and tariff policies, as well as his tough stance on illegal immigration, will increase the stickiness of U.S. inflation. Therefore, the US Federal Reserve must remain cautious. At the same time, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates, which will cause further differences between the United States and Europe. 4. Will Macron remain president of France? meeting. But when the question was raised, it showed that Macron was in a vulnerable position.With about 30 months left in his second term, Macron is paying the price for his decision to call snap elections in the summer, which ultimately ended in defeat for his camp. 5. Will the Seven Heroes of US stocks decline? No, but they won't go any higher either. Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Huida, Tesla and Alphabet reflect the vitality of American private enterprises, investors' attention to AI and the United States' leadership in the technology field. These phenomena and factors will continue in 2025 The existence of the incoming Trump administration is also essentially a takeover of a stagnant political world by a dynamic, tech-led private sector. However, there are three major problems that will limit their further expansion: 1) A sharp increase in capital expenditures may damage profitability; 2) The artificial intelligence bubble is growing; 3) Sky-high valuations have prompted investors to start looking for small technology companies as alternatives. 6. Will China’s export prices fall further? Yes. The competitiveness of Chinese companies, especially in high-tech manufacturing, means that overall, China's export prices (in yuan terms) are likely to fall further sharply. In October 2024, China's export price index fell by 5.2% year-on-year, and in some months in 2025, the index may fall by another 10%. 7. Will Musk fall out with Trump? Won't. Before Trump took office, Musk's companies had risen in anticipation of upcoming loosening of regulatory policies, and Musk's personal net worth had soared by about two-thirds. 8. Will Germany relax its debt constraints? It will. Calls for an easing of debt limits are growing as Germany faces huge spending needs, particularly on defence, amid a stagnant economy. One of the key reasons for the collapse of Olaf Scholz's government, debt limits have become one of the central issues in the upcoming elections in February. 9. Will the bond market crash? Won't. In an era when debt levels are already high, investors will be highly cautious about any signs that Trump will ease borrowing policies and press for tax cuts. The loss of confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds will have a disastrous impact on U.S. economic markets, including the stock market, to the point where Trump is unlikely to test investors' sensitive nerves. 10. Will China’s carbon emissions decline? China's carbon emissions levels in 2024 are likely to be the same as in 2023 or increase slightly due to its vast solar resources and increased use of electric vehicles, coupled with a sluggish real estate market. But as energy demand rebounds, Xi Jinping’s economic stimulus measures in 2025 may offset the contribution of solar energy, electric vehicles and others to reducing carbon emissions. 11. Will the British Labor government stick to its promise not to raise taxes further? So far, yes. But in fact, the performance of opposition members is telling us that this is not a stable commitment. Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer used various forms of wording in their proposals in October to offer some breathing space after the announcement of a £40bn tax hike. 12. Will Israel and the United States attack Iran’s nuclear power plants? Won't. After a year of geopolitical conflict, Israel has become bolder and Iran has become relatively vulnerable. But Israel may need U.S. support to destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure, something Trump is likely to remain cautious about. 13. Will Bitcoin break $200,000? Yes. Bitcoin topped $100,000 in December alone, and while a further doubling may seem like a stretch, why wouldn’t it be possible? The Trump team is wholeheartedly embracing cryptocurrencies, which has fueled a post-election rally in cryptocurrencies. In a friendlier regulatory environment, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to end aggressive lawsuits against cryptocurrency companies and establish clear rules to make it easier and safer for Wall Street and asset managers to hold and trade cryptocurrencies. . Institutional inflows combined with no need to worry about regulatory enforcement will only drive Bitcoin’s price higher. 14. Will India’s GDP surpass Japan’s? No, India's growth will slow down. 15. Will electric vehicles account for more than a quarter of the global auto market? No, consumer interest in electric vehicles outside of China has waned, and 2025 will also be a difficult period for electric vehicles. But in order to meet Europe's stricter emissions rules and the UK's electric vehicle sales targets, automakers will also launch more types of electric vehicles and find ways to lower prices. China will still drive market growth as electric vehicles become more affordable than cars. However, the biggest uncertainty lies in the United States. The incoming Trump administration is likely to slow down the transformation of electric vehicles. 16. Will Argentine President Javier Milei lift exchange controls? It will. The liberal president has so far refused to lift limits on how much foreign currency Argentine individuals and businesses can buy, fearing soaring inflation and running out of reserves. But by 2025, he might take the plunge. ...

#BTC #AI