Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, believes that Ether may not be the smartest investment choice for the 2025 bull run, as he predicts this asset might yield unimpressive returns compared to Bitcoin.
According to other analysts, the price trend of Ether is still unclear and needs more signals from the price chart to determine.
“While we cannot rule out the possibility of a new driving factor, we would not be surprised if Ethereum struggles to generate significant growth in the coming year,” Markus Thielen noted in the market report on December 30.
Ether is a “poor investment” in the medium term, according to analysts.
“While we appreciate the level of volatility of Ethereum, we believe that it remains a poor investment in the medium term and predict that ETH will continue to underperform BTC again in 2025,” Thielen stated.
“Therefore, our view on Ethereum remains very clear: ‘stay away’.”
Thielen noted that one of the most important indicators to monitor in 2025 is the trend of active validators. However, he pointed out that the growth rate over the past month of validators has turned negative, declining by about 1% in the last 30 days, raising concerns about the risk of more validators withdrawing from the network.
Source: 10x Research.
Thielen believes the increase in staking withdrawals is “reasonable,” arguing that Ethereum lacks “real demand” beyond staking.
However, not everyone agrees with this view.
Tim Lowe, managing director of Attestant, recently shared that demand for Ether could easily increase if marketing strategies are improved and its core value is communicated more clearly, thereby attracting more investors.
Lowe sees diversification away from Bitcoin as a simple catalyst for Ethereum.
Ether is less efficient than Bitcoin.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 121.4% since January 1, while Ether has only achieved a profit of 46.29% in the same period.
On January 11, Bitcoin spot ETF funds were launched in the United States, receiving significant interest and helping to push Bitcoin's price to a new high in just two months. Although Ether ETFs were also rolled out in the U.S. in July, the demand is significantly lower than that for Bitcoin ETFs, making the outlook for this asset more negative.
In the year, Bitcoin ETF funds recorded a capital flow of $35.27 billion, while Ether ETFs only reached $2.66 billion.
Thielen believes that the Duncan upgrade in March – which reduces network transaction fees and increases transaction processing capacity – was “six months late,” missing the peak of the meme coin frenzy, and the market has “shifted” to more “cost-effective” alternatives like Solana (SOL).
He also expressed skepticism about the Pectra upgrade, which is expected to be introduced in early 2025.
“Of the 19 upgrades to date, only two have actually made a significant positive impact on price, and both occurred during Bitcoin's bullish markets,” Thielen commented.
“The three main driving factors for Ethereum in 2024 are generally falling short of expectations, bringing very little value,” he added.
Source: Coinmarketcap.
Thielen believes that Ether may continue to underperform Bitcoin in 2025, although other cryptocurrency analysts remain uncertain about Ether's next trend and may fluctuate in either direction.
Analyst Cold Blooded Schiller stated in a post on December 31 on X that Ether has been “trading in a narrow range” since December 25, with two possible scenarios.
In an optimistic scenario, they predict Ether could make a “breakthrough” upward, triggering a bull run. Conversely, it could drop to the bottom of December 20, potentially testing the $3,000 level.
Sharing this view, anonymous analyst Dal believes that Ether could go in one of two directions.
“It is very tightly compressed, I think if it breaks above $3,554, ETH price could return to $4,000. If not, we may sweep through the $3,102 level,” Dal wrote in a post on December 31 on X.
Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, is more optimistic about Ether and believes that this asset is showing signs of breaking out compared to Bitcoin in January 2025.
In a post on December 24 on X, Van de Poppe stated that he “would not be surprised if the ETH/BTC ratio surpasses 0.04 in January.”
At the time of writing, the ETH/BTC ratio – an indicator of Ether's relative strength compared to Bitcoin – is at 0.03571, according to data from TradingView.
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