2025 Major Speculations

1. Market Main Tone

From the 2024's "全面牛市、向上、拿住" (Full Bull Market, Upwards, Hold), it shifts to 2025's "逐步筑顶、震荡向上、边打边退" (Gradually Building a Top, Fluctuating Upwards, Advancing and Retreating).

2. Federal Reserve Interest Rates

Rate cuts may exceed expectations, dropping to 4% or even below 3.5%. If it drops below 2.5%, it could signal the end of the bull market, with this inflection point expected to occur in mid-2026.

3. Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin ($BTC ) prices are expected to peak in the range of $140,000 to $150,000.

4. Gold Market

Gold prices will fluctuate between $2,400 and $3,100 per ounce.

5. Tesla and Quality Asset Strategy

Tesla's market value may adjust to around $1 trillion. Tencent and Moutai remain stable, while Tesla and Bitcoin adopt a "advancing and retreating" strategy for gradual adjustments.

6. Smart Wearables and Large Models

Smart glasses, headphones, watches, and other smart hardware will deeply integrate with large models, with related products and concept stocks expected to experience explosive growth.

7. Chips and Scientific Innovation

Nvidia maintains its lead with a market value of about $3 trillion. The market share of domestic low-end chips increases, while high-end chips achieve technological breakthroughs. The Sci-Tech 50's annual maximum increase may exceed 50%.

8. Renminbi and Bond Market

Renminbi interest rates approach zero, and the central bank may abandon the "steady 7" exchange rate policy, with the RMB to USD exchange rate significantly fluctuating between 6.8 and 7.6, with an annual increase of about 5%, expected to close at 7.0. Meanwhile, the central bank will increase the issuance of domestic debt, with significant growth in government bond trading volume.

9. Real Estate Market

Core locations in first-tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen) see continuous rebound in housing prices, nearing historical highs, with frequent occurrences of "楼王" (Building Kings), while the transaction volume and prices of second-hand houses continue to hit new highs. However, second- and third-tier cities only see a recovery in transaction volume, with prices unlikely to show significant increases, further exacerbating the differentiation trend in the real estate market.