CoinVoice has recently learned that, according to a report by Jin Shi, Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist at The Leuthold Group, stated in his blog that although policy officials and investors seem increasingly concerned about the possibility of an overheating economy, he believes that an unexpected economic slowdown is more likely to occur in 2025, which could ultimately lead to a stock market correction of at least 10%.
Jim Paulsen pointed out that based on history since 2003, fluctuations in bond yields typically lead to unexpected economic outcomes. A decrease in yields means that the economy will improve in three months, and vice versa. In his view, bond yields hovering around 4.6% (which reached 4.63% last week) indicate that the economic surprise index will slow to -35 in the first quarter, and GDP will also slow down.
Jim Paulsen stated that if an unexpected economic slowdown exacerbates concerns, the stock market may pause its rise, even if it is not a correction of 10% to 15%. [Original link]