BlockBeats news, on December 31, The Leuthold Group's chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen stated in his blog that although policymakers and investors seem increasingly concerned about the possibility of the economy overheating, he believes that an unexpected economic slowdown is more likely to occur in 2025, which could ultimately lead to a stock market pullback of at least 10%.
Jim Paulsen pointed out that based on history since 2003, fluctuations in bond yields usually lead to economic surprises, with a decline in yields indicating an improvement in the economy three months later, and vice versa. In his view, bond yields hovering around 4.6% (reaching 4.63% last week) suggest that the economic surprise index will slow to -35 in the first quarter, and GDP will also slow down.
Jim Paulsen stated that if the economic surprise slows down exacerbates concerns, the stock market may pause its rise, even if it does not result in a 10% to 15% pullback. (Jin Shi)
