As New Year’s Eve is upon us, so too are Polymarket prediction markets for 2025, which are open for traders to bet on events for the next 12 months.
Following the excitement of the 2024 Elections, Sports betting has taken over as the top category for 2025 predictions. In the 2025 section of the site, Traders appear most focused on the 2025 NFL Draft, which leads with $465,998 in bets. Contract participants are monitoring quarterback prospects and broader scouting developments, reflecting the platform’s highest activity level.
However, other prediction markets for 2025 show a significant drop in volume. The next largest contract involves Bitcoin’s price outlook, drawing just $28,640. The odds of the price hitting $120,000 are 70%, and the odds of it falling to $70,000 are 55%. Heading into the new year, Bitcoin sits around $94,000, and the price retaking $100,000 within the next twelve months is at 94%.
The contract on 2025 Federal Reserve action holds $27,507 in wagers, placing an 11% probability on zero rate cuts, 19% on a single 25 basis-point cut, and 29% on two cuts. Another contract gauges the likelihood of a rate hike, currently at 15%. Combined, these figures reveal disparate views on the pace of potential policy shifts ahead of the new administration.
Whether Vladimir Putin will exit the presidency by 2025 indicates a 13% chance, while traders also appear focused on a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire at 71%. In the Middle East, a Netanyahu exit sits at 27%, while the odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader stepping down from power reach 44%. These contracts suggest ongoing, yet meager, demand for hedges related to geopolitical shifts.
Terrifyingly, the possibility of a nuclear weapon detonation by 2025 has a 22% chance, stressing concerns around escalating tensions in multiple regions. However, even a test detonation woul#BinanceAlphaAlert #SolvProtocolMegadrop $BTC
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