The price of Bitcoin basically fluctuates around 94000, forming a consolidation range overall. Looking back, the price experienced a 'waterfall' decline (a rapid drop in a short time) and then welcomed a rebound. Although the rebound has some strength, it has now entered a high-level consolidation phase, with bulls and bears temporarily at a standstill.
How do we view this market trend? In simple terms, the current market sentiment is 'pressure above, support below.' Whoever can act first, whether bulls or bears, will lead the next direction.
Technical indicators are important tools for judging market sentiment and trends. Let's start by looking at a few key indicators.
1. MACD: Bears are strong, but converging.
MACD is a tool used to observe market momentum.
Currently, whether at the 4-hour or daily level, the MACD fast and slow lines are below the zero axis (indicating a weak market), and both the DIF and DEA values are negative, showing that bearish forces are dominant. However, the good news is that the distance between the fast and slow lines is narrowing, which is known as 'convergence,' and this may signal a weakening of bearish forces.
2. RSI: Close to the neutral zone.
RSI is used to determine whether the market is overbought or oversold.
The RSI for the 4-hour cycle is 48.8, and the RSI for the daily cycle is 44.9. Both values are close to the neutral zone (around 50), with no obvious overbought or oversold signals. In simple terms, the current market sentiment is relatively stable, neither overly euphoric nor extremely fearful.
3. EMA moving averages: Pressure still exists.
We focus on the EMA moving averages at the 4-hour and daily levels.
4-hour level: The short-term moving average (EMA7) is below the current price, indicating some support in the short term, but the EMA30 is close to the price, which may constitute short-term resistance. At the same time, the EMA120 is far above the current price, indicating that the medium to long-term trend remains weak.
Daily level: Both EMA7 and EMA30 are above the current price, clearly indicating that there is significant pressure above.
Therefore, from the arrangement of moving averages, it can be seen that short-term fluctuations may continue, but in the medium to long term, a rebound requires stronger momentum support.
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Trading volume: The market is starting to become active.
Trading volume is a key indicator of market activity.
The trading volume for the 4-hour cycle has recently increased, indicating that more market participants are involved, and there may be opportunities for price fluctuations in the short term.
The daily cycle trading volume is relatively stable, with no obvious anomalies, which also aligns with the current fluctuating market state.
In simple terms, the change in trading volume indicates that the market 'is starting to get lively,' but it has not yet reached the explosive stage.
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My view: Wait for clearer signals.
The current market is in a consolidation phase, with a bearish technical performance, but some signals of a bottoming out have appeared. If you are a short-term trader, you can pay attention to the upper and lower limits of the 94000 fluctuation range. Once the price breaks through or falls below, you can operate accordingly. If you are a medium to long-term holder, you can continue to wait for clearer bottom signals, such as sustained increases in trading volume, MACD fast and slow line golden cross (the fast line crossing above the slow line), etc.
In this fluctuating market, controlling position and patiently waiting are key. Impatience or blindly chasing highs and cutting losses can lead to losses.
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