Last week, Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $349 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $388 million.
On December 29, well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio released a market outlook for the first quarter of 2025 on the X platform, predicting that ETH will be the strongest performing mainstream token in the next quarter.
Eugene gave three reasons for being bullish on ETH: first, the technical trend; second, Trump’s support, especially WLF’s heavy investment in the Ethereum ecosystem; and third, the progress of the Base ecosystem. He then wrote another article emphasizing that since Trump’s election, the inflow of funds into the Ethereum spot ETF has undergone a 180-degree change.
ETF fund flows: Is Ethereum's prospects more promising?
Eugene's statement is not an exaggeration. Data platform SoSoValue shows that since Trump's victory on November 6, the inflow of funds into Ethereum spot ETFs has increased significantly, even surpassing the growth trend of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
This trend became more obvious in late December.
According to SoSoValue data, last week (December 23 to December 27, Eastern Time), Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $349 million, while during the same period, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $388 million. This obvious difference in funds may indicate that ETH will perform better in the future.
As of the time of writing, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for Monday has not yet been fully released, but according to Lookonchain's on-chain monitoring, yesterday's ten US Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 3,000 BTC (about $276 million), while the nine Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of 16,359 ETH (about $54.33 million). It seems that this trend has not changed.
Trump concept family bucket
In addition to the ETF's fund flow data, another factor supporting ETH's expectations is the continued building of positions in the Trump family project WLFI.
Recently, WLFI has purchased multiple Ethereum ecosystem tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO, etc., but their largest holding is still ETH.
Although this is related to the deployment of WIFI itself in the Ethereum ecosystem, the sentence "The president is already in the car, what are you still hesitating about?" still has a strong FOMO effect, making people unable to help but follow up.
Looking back at historical data, will the script repeat itself?
According to Coinglass data, ETH has historically performed best in the first quarter of the new year after the US election and the Bitcoin halving cycle. In particular, in the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2021, ETH rose by 518% and 161% respectively, while Bitcoin rose by 11.9% and 103.2% in these two quarters, and even failed to exceed ETH's returns.
If history repeats itself, ETH may see a significant rise in Q1 next year.
If ETH does rise as expected, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become Beta options with higher risk/return, such as:
If ETH does rise as expected, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become Beta options with higher risk/return, such as:
Trump concept coin portfolio: AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO;
TF staking is expected to have potential benefits: LDO, EIGEN, RPL, SSV;
The leading AI concepts in the Ethereum ecosystem: VIRTUAL, GAME, and AIXBT.
Note: These tokens only list specific sectors and concepts. Whether to invest needs to be analyzed based on personal circumstances. The above content does not constitute investment advice.
Counterpoint
Although many well-known investors and traders such as Eugene are clearly bullish on ETH, some people are pessimistic about ETH's future performance.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, painted a more pessimistic scenario, predicting that ETH will continue to underperform and struggle to reach new all-time highs in a “hawkish” macro environment in 2025: “We expect a more conservative outlook for ETH in 2025. Unlike in previous years, early hawkish policy may be tempered by weakening liquidity tailwinds.”
In the current period of volatile market conditions, predictions from all parties are often "one-sided conclusions" based on different conditions and indicators. No one can predict the future. Therefore, be sure to do your own research (DYOR) before investing.