Today the Bitcoin market is really exciting. The price shot up like a roller coaster, first spiking to a high of $95,024, then quickly dropping back to around $92,600. What's even more interesting is that more than half of the energy used for Bitcoin now comes from clean sources, exceeding 50%. Didn't Musk say that once the clean energy usage rate for Bitcoin reached this level, Tesla would start accepting Bitcoin as a payment method again? It seems that this condition has now been met.
Analysts: The virtuous cycle of MicroStrategy may have been broken.
MicroStrategy is truly a staunch supporter of Bitcoin. This year, when the Bitcoin market was performing well, they not only held on to their Bitcoins without selling for profit but also raised funds through convertible bonds and stock sales to continue buying more Bitcoins. This year they have already spent $22 billion to acquire 257,250 Bitcoins, bringing their total Bitcoin holdings to 446,400, with an acquisition cost of $27.9 billion.
Stephen Alpher, the chief editor of the marketing department at CoinDesk, mentioned in an article that after MicroStrategy was included in the Nasdaq 100 index, their stock price has been declining, and their model of 'issuing bonds + selling stocks - buying Bitcoin' may no longer be effective. There are now several signs that may indicate MicroStrategy's stock price has reached a cyclical peak.
Soros's reflexivity theory talks about the interaction between investors and the financial markets, such as when investors believe that stock prices will rise due to increased returns, the prices indeed rise, allowing companies to raise funds more easily, leading to higher returns and continued price increases. However, if something cannot be sustained indefinitely, it will ultimately stop.
MicroStrategy's stock price hit an all-time high in November, but after being included in the Nasdaq 100 index in December, the stock price retraced by 30%, dropping nearly half compared to the historical high in November. Now, there are many signs indicating that MicroStrategy may have reached a cyclical peak.
Wall Street's big player MicroStrategy has recently made a significant investment in Bitcoin, investing $209 million to purchase an additional 2,138 Bitcoins. According to the information they published, the average purchase price for these Bitcoins is $97,837. These transactions were completed between December 23 and 29, and now MicroStrategy holds a total of 446,400 Bitcoins, which is approximately worth $41.8 billion at current market prices. To fund this acquisition, MicroStrategy also sold some stock, generating a net income of $209 million. By December 30, they also plan to issue $21 billion in stock, of which $6.8 billion is available for sale.
MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor said that once their Bitcoin investment reaches $42 billion, they will reconsider their capital allocation plans.
Next, MicroStrategy announced that it would hold a special meeting to discuss proposals to enhance its Bitcoin acquisition strategy. This proposal includes increasing the authorized Class A common stock from 330 million shares to 10.33 billion shares, and increasing the authorized preferred stock from 5 million shares to 1.005 billion shares, giving them more flexibility for future Bitcoin purchases.
Since launching their 21/21 plan, MicroStrategy has purchased over 194,000 Bitcoins, worth about $18 billion, achieving 42% of their investment goal in less than two months. This acquisition also marks their eighth consecutive week of buying Bitcoin. There's also a little anecdote: last week, MicroStrategy bought 5,000 Bitcoins for $561 million, at a time when Bitcoin had not yet been included in the Nasdaq 100 index.
Is a strong rebound expected in January?
Markus Thielen, founder and research director of 10X Research, mentioned in early February 2024 that Bitcoin typically rises 11% around the Lunar New Year. In the past 9 years, if traders purchased Bitcoin 3 days before the Lunar New Year and then sold it within 10 days after the New Year, they would have gained good returns.
The Spring Festival in 2024 falls on February 10. Bitcoin began to rise from $43,000 on February 5, reaching close to $53,000 by February 15. Then Bitcoin continued to rise, peaking at $72,000 on March 15. From the charts, whether in 2021, 2022, or the Spring Festival in 2024, it falls in early February, while the Spring Festival in 2023 was at the end of January. In these years, Bitcoin's increase during the Lunar New Year month has been over 10%, with one year even reaching 43.55%.
As for the Spring Festival in 2025, it will be on January 29, moving up to January earlier than in previous years. The market sometimes exhibits self-fulfilling phenomena, such as 'rising in October', so the performance of Bitcoin during the Lunar New Year is indeed worth looking forward to.