On the last day of 2024, everyone is looking forward to welcoming 2025 with renewed vigor, but it seems our Bitcoin does not share the same sentiment. Based on AICoin chart data, technical analysis is performed on Bitcoin's market.
Long-term Analysis
Pattern Judgment:
Top Fallback Trend: A significant high point appeared at 99963.70, followed by a sharp price drop, indicating the formation of a top fallback trend.
Downward Channel: The price is generally fluctuating within a downward channel, showing downward pressure.
Support Zone: The price has repeatedly stopped falling near 91530.45, forming a long-term key support.
Relationship between Volume and Trend:
When near the support level of 91530, trading volume has increased, indicating bulls attempting to resist.
During the downtrend, increased volume accompanied by reduced volume during rebounds indicates market bearishness.
Short-term Analysis
Pattern Judgment:
Double Bottom Pattern Emerging: In the short term, the price has tested the 91530 support twice without breaking it, forming a short-term double bottom pattern.
Yin Yang Alternating Fluctuations: Between 92417.67 and 93000, the K-lines alternate between bullish and bearish, indicating intense short-term speculation.
Recent price fluctuations have been large, with multiple instances of sharp rises and falls. The latest K-lines show long lower shadows, indicating certain buying support at lower levels.
Resistance and Support Levels:
Resistance Level: 92731.02 is a key short-term upward resistance; breaking it may test the 93000 level.
Support Level: 92000 is an important short-term support; breaking it may trigger further downward movement to below 91000.
Technical Indicator Analysis:
MACD: The current MACD is in the negative region, but DIF and DEA are gradually approaching, indicating the possibility of forming a golden cross, and a rebound may occur in the short term.
RSI: The RSI is currently around 42, not entering the oversold zone, and market sentiment is neutral.
EMA: The price is currently below EMA7 (92696.3) and well below EMA30 (93319.6) and EMA120 (94655.5), indicating an overall bearish trend.
Today's Trend Prediction
Short-term Fluctuations:
If the price breaks through 92417.67 in the morning session, the short-term target is 93000; if bulls continue to exert strength, they may test 93500.
If it cannot break through 92417.67, the price may pull back to near 91530 again.
Key Levels:
91530: A key point for support strength; a break below may accelerate downward movement.
92731.02: Short-term upward resistance level; breaking it may lead to a rebound phase.
Risk Warning:
If the price repeatedly tests 92731.02 without success, be cautious of downward risks.
After breaking 93500, market sentiment may turn bullish, suggesting flexible strategy adjustments.
Trading Strategy Suggestions
Short-term Trading:
Consider light long positions after breaking 92731.02, with a target of 93000 and a stop loss set below 92000.
If it breaks below 91530, the short-selling target is 91000, with a stop loss set above 91800.
Medium to Long-term Trading:
If the price breaks through 93500 with increased volume, consider placing a medium-term bullish position.
If the rebound is weak and breaks below 91530 again, it is recommended to wait and see for confirmation of new support.
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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