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Ben Walther
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Altcoin Season? Not Yet—But Here’s What the Data Says 👇
I've seen many posts about a looming altseason that did not provide evidence or data-backed insights. Not helpful at all.
On the other side, I’ve been sharing content hinting that altseason could be approaching soon too. I looked at BTC dominance and overall market cycles. And yes, the probabilities have supported (and partially still do) that view.
But fresh data is always key—and we need to stay flexible.
Let’s dig into where we stand now and what could come next.
Last Cycle: The Setup for Altseason 🚀
→ Nov 2020 — ETH/BTC hit 0.027, with BTC dominance at 65%.
→ 6 months later — ETH/BTC climbed 196% to 0.08 as BTC dominance fell to 41%.
→ ETH soared 629% vs. BTC’s 167%, kicking off altcoin mania.
👉 Takeaway: BTC started the move, but altcoins dominated when new money flooded in.
Fast Forward to Today 📊
→ Nov 2024 — ETH/BTC hit 0.032 and is up 10% since then.
→ BTC dominance today? 56.5%.
→ $1.08 trillion was added to the crypto market cap in the last 2 months, and 60% went into BTC.
What Does This Mean? 🤔
No altseason yet.
BTC is still dominating inflows—just like the early last cycle.
But cycles don’t have to repeat perfectly.
Key Questions Going Forward 🔮
1️⃣ Is this time different? Are we seeing a structural shift, or is it just delayed?
2️⃣ What triggers the altseason? A major ETH breakout? AI or DePIN hype?
3️⃣ What role does macro play? With rising debt and liquidity concerns, could BTC remain the safer bet?
4️⃣ What about 2025? Does historical data still point to altcoins outperforming after BTC peaks?
Final Thoughts 🔑
We can’t predict altseason—we can only assess probabilities.
Currently, BTC dominance remains high, but history tells us it doesn’t last forever.
What’s your view—are altcoins about to break out, or will BTC keep leading? 👇
I've seen many posts about a looming altseason that did not provide evidence or data-backed insights. Not helpful at all.
On the other side, I’ve been sharing content hinting that altseason could be approaching soon too. I looked at BTC dominance and overall market cycles. And yes, the probabilities have supported (and partially still do) that view.
But fresh data is always key—and we need to stay flexible.
Let’s dig into where we stand now and what could come next.
Last Cycle: The Setup for Altseason 🚀
→ Nov 2020 — ETH/BTC hit 0.027, with BTC dominance at 65%.
→ 6 months later — ETH/BTC climbed 196% to 0.08 as BTC dominance fell to 41%.
→ ETH soared 629% vs. BTC’s 167%, kicking off altcoin mania.
👉 Takeaway: BTC started the move, but altcoins dominated when new money flooded in.
Fast Forward to Today 📊
→ Nov 2024 — ETH/BTC hit 0.032 and is up 10% since then.
→ BTC dominance today? 56.5%.
→ $1.08 trillion was added to the crypto market cap in the last 2 months, and 60% went into BTC.
What Does This Mean? 🤔
No altseason yet.
BTC is still dominating inflows—just like the early last cycle.
But cycles don’t have to repeat perfectly.
Key Questions Going Forward 🔮
1️⃣ Is this time different? Are we seeing a structural shift, or is it just delayed?
2️⃣ What triggers the altseason? A major ETH breakout? AI or DePIN hype?
3️⃣ What role does macro play? With rising debt and liquidity concerns, could BTC remain the safer bet?
4️⃣ What about 2025? Does historical data still point to altcoins outperforming after BTC peaks?
Final Thoughts 🔑
We can’t predict altseason—we can only assess probabilities.
Currently, BTC dominance remains high, but history tells us it doesn’t last forever.
What’s your view—are altcoins about to break out, or will BTC keep leading? 👇
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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