Let's take a look at the major events that have occurred with Bitcoin over the past year.
Author: Echo, MetaEra
Source: MetaEra
It's year-end summary time again. The 2024 market dynamics are complex, with the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the halving event arriving as scheduled, prices soaring, hash rates reaching new highs, ecosystems emerging, and political landscapes shifting with continuous good news... Numerous factors are driving BTC to spark a global investment frenzy, with prices reaching new heights, breaking the $100,000 mark, and Google Trends index more than doubling compared to last year, ushering in a moment of glory! For the entire cryptocurrency industry, 2024 is a milestone year. Each significant event marks the trajectory of Bitcoin and the future of the entire cryptocurrency market.
This report is structured around time and key events, with MetaEra reviewing those critical moments that influence Bitcoin's fate. Let's step into the Bitcoin chronicle of 2024 together, experiencing the glory and hardships of this year.
The moment of cryptocurrency liberation: Bitcoin spot ETF approved.
On January 10, the US financial stage welcomed a milestone change—the approval of the BTC ETF. This allows US-listed companies, pension funds, and various institutional investors to enter this mysterious field by openly purchasing and holding Bitcoin, marking the beginning of a new era.
In April, the first batch of Hong Kong Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF products applied for by the Hong Kong subsidiaries of Huaxia, Bosera, and Jiashi Fund received official approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and subsequently, on April 30, these highly anticipated products were officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
The market cheers for the launch of ETFs, increasing the depth of crypto market products, with institutions flooding in, jubilantly turning the past doubts into a pursuit of value storage, traditional capital pouring into the crypto world, bringing crypto investment closer to the Web 2.0 market.
Shortly after the news broke, the overall performance of the Bitcoin market remained stable, with no signs of turbulence. Many questioned the ETF's weak actions, conspiracy theories about institutions surfaced, and the rhetoric of 'doing flashy things without real action' echoed. All this uncertainty attracted countless investors and industry observers' attention, becoming the most suspenseful chapter in Bitcoin's future development path. Amidst the undercurrents, Bitcoin steadfastly holds to the 'time machine theory,' awaiting new impetus to prove its value over time.
Image Source: SoSoValue
Bitcoin Halving: The Critical Turning Point of Fate
On April 20, Bitcoin underwent halving at block height 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin after halving.
Typically, Bitcoin's price rises after a halving, as it has done following the previous three halvings, all of which resulted in new highs. Many investors have similar expectations for this halving in April 2024, believing it will undoubtedly serve as a new impetus for price growth following the ETF actions.
However, looking at the price a few months after the halving, Bitcoin's price did not immediately reach new historical highs after a brief pullback period. Instead, it took flight significantly only after a series of actions, including the halving, conferences, political elections, regulatory changes, and industry strategic reserves. Historically, halvings have had a broad impact, often leading to market volatility and increased speculation in the crypto space; they reshape the mining landscape, lowering miners' profit points; and stimulate technological innovation and community development within the blockchain ecosystem. Halving events can also hedge against inflation, enhancing Bitcoin's attractiveness as a long-term investment asset.
The above information indicates that while halving helps strengthen Bitcoin's scarcity narrative, macroeconomic factors also significantly impact Bitcoin's price. This mysterious force of Bitcoin cannot be accurately predicted based on history; it refreshes people's understanding at every stage, and we cannot stop its progress. As Binance CEO Richard Teng stated: we need to look further ahead and view market performance from the perspective of market cycles. We should not be anxious about when the bull or bear market will arrive, but rather focus on the long-term trends and fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin consistently surprises you with moon-like gains during moments of doubt, calmness, and anxiety. We just need to wait; Bitcoin remains great.
BTC Ecosystem's Basic Service Providers: Miners, Strong Confidence vs. Survival Crisis?
From the perspective of miners, the Bitcoin mining landscape in 2024 is changing dramatically. Not only has the halving caused hash prices to plummet, leading to an economic roller coaster, but developments in inscriptions and runes during the first half of the year have also quietly altered the main source of miners' income, akin to an ecological awakening. In the past, mining relied solely on traditional block rewards, but with these emerging phenomena sprouting like mushrooms, the main revenue focus has gradually shifted to infrastructure service gas fees. For example, during the fourth halving of Bitcoin, transaction fees surged dramatically, with Rune tokens paying high fees on the halving block, becoming an important component of miners' income. According to statistics, since January 1, 2024, standard financial transactions account for 67% of total miner fee income, Runes for 19%, and BRC-20 and Ordinals transactions together account for 14%, with gas fee income increasing daily.
Against this backdrop, the role of miners is undergoing a profound transformation. They are no longer merely simple block producers but have become infrastructure service providers in the Bitcoin ecosystem. With the network resources and infrastructure advantages accumulated through mining, miners can provide services for various transactions and earn gas fees. This shift deeply integrates miners into various aspects of the Bitcoin ecosystem, linking their fate closely with the entire ecosystem while promoting ecological development, seeking a more sustainable path in the new economic model.
Bitcoin Conference: The Source of Market Dynamics
At the midpoint of the year, on July 27, the Bitcoin 2024 Conference took place in Nashville, where renowned politicians like Trump and Robert F. Kennedy made their appearances. Their remarks and proposals regarding Bitcoin were like heavy bombs, creating waves at the conference and throughout the cryptocurrency industry.
Trump delivered nearly an hour-long speech, starting an hour late, yet tens of thousands of spectators remained enthusiastic. In his speech, Trump fully acknowledged BTC's status as a scarce asset and a safe-haven asset, affirmed that BTC would surpass gold to become the world's largest asset class, and stated that the US must maintain its superpower status in cryptocurrency. He also emphasized that if elected, he would fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who has been a hindrance to the development of cryptocurrency through compliance measures, on his first day in office and made 13 commitments regarding cryptocurrency.
On the first day, I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman.
If elected, establish a strategic national Bitcoin reserve for the US government.
The US government will retain its 100% ownership.
Bitcoin will fly to the moon.
Do not sell your Bitcoin.
Bitcoin may one day exceed the market value of gold.
I reaffirm my commitment to reducing Ross Ulbricht's sentence.
During my presidency, there will never be a CBDC if I am elected president.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will soar in unprecedented ways.
Bitcoin does not threaten the US dollar; the current US government is the real threat to the US dollar.
The United States will become the global capital of cryptocurrency and a superpower in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin represents freedom, sovereignty, and independence from government coercion and control.
I assure the Bitcoin community that on the day I am sworn in, the anti-cryptocurrency movement led by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will come to an end.
Whether it's due to his personality or to amuse others, he clearly improvised a bit at the end: 'I wish everyone has fun, whether it's Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, or anything else.' Taking advantage of the conference, he rallied support for his political blueprint.
It resembled a star-studded political and financial feast. The market price performance during and after the Bitcoin conference sometimes leaped lightly to new heights, and at times briefly retreated to build strength. The conference acted as a massive vortex of encrypted information, where various technological innovations, policy interpretations, and market trend insights regarding Bitcoin converged and fused, then rippled out across the entire cryptocurrency field. The industry’s reactions to politicians' statements and actions are varied, with all eyes on time for verification.
Bull Market Outlook: Positive Impact of the US Election
On November 6 at 14:27, the US presidential election results were finalized, with Trump emerging as the final winner, returning to the White House at the age of 78 with the support of the crypto community.
Trump's victory and his subsequent series of measures favorable to the cryptocurrency industry signal a significantly positive impact on Bitcoin's price. After the election results were confirmed, the Bitcoin market reacted quickly, with investors flocking to the market based on strong expectations of future policy benefits.
After taking office, he announced that he would implement multiple measures beneficial to the cryptocurrency industry, including the repeal of the SAB 121 Act expected on January 20 next year, clearing the barriers for traditional financial institutions to enter and promoting the institutional development of crypto assets, thereby providing a legitimate and compliant channel for a large influx of potential funds into the Bitcoin market, expanding the market capacity and depth of Bitcoin; following the commitment made at the Bitcoin conference, he intends to abolish the former SEC chairman on his first day in office and appoint crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as the next SEC chairman, sending a strong signal of regulatory relaxation to the market and boosting investor confidence; promoting the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve to influence the market from a supply-demand perspective, retaining ownership of Bitcoin and expanding its scale, which reduces the selling pressure of Bitcoin in the market while increasing its attractiveness as a strategic asset; planning to stop government Bitcoin sales and use Bitcoin as an investment holding asset; the companies under his administration are also negotiating with the Intercontinental Exchange regarding the proposed acquisition of the cryptocurrency exchange Bakkt, injecting new vitality and imagination into the trading ecosystem of Bitcoin, attracting more investors to participate, indirectly assisting in the rise of prices.
Bitcoin is riding the wave of favorable US policies, rapidly advancing on the trajectory of price increase, and its future development space and potential appear increasingly vast under the intertwining of these positive factors. Welcome to the new era of cryptocurrency driven by Trump!
New Political Landscape: Core Political Figures Express Diverse Opinions, Government Reserves Enter the Scene
Driven by historic market surges, some countries are considering establishing national Bitcoin reserves, and we are delighted to witness a significant trend: more and more political figures are recognizing its value.
US President-elect Trump stated that he will make the US the world's capital of cryptocurrency, proposing not to sell the Bitcoin held by the US government but to hold it as a strategic reserve asset for the long term.
Russian President Putin signed a digital currency taxation law, stipulating that digital currencies are property, applicable to foreign trade payments, with mining and sales exempt from VAT; mining infrastructure operators must report to tax authorities, and personal income tax is levied based on actual income; Putin also emphasized at the forum that no one can ban Bitcoin and other electronic payment methods, as they are new technologies that will continue to develop.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: Restructuring the Web3 and cryptocurrency policy department, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party disbanded the existing Web3 project group and established a dedicated department within the party's digital society promotion department, led by the former secretary of the Web3 project group, although the new department's responsibilities have yet to be clearly defined.
The South Korean State Council passed the (Virtual Asset User Protection Law) execution order, effective July 19, stipulating that virtual asset service providers must secure user deposits through banks and have the right to suspend users' cash and virtual asset withdrawals based on reasonable grounds.
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele proposed renting the country's volcanoes to miners for sustainable Bitcoin mining, utilizing geothermal energy to reduce mining costs; previously, the country successfully mined Bitcoin worth approximately $46 million using geothermal energy.
Argentinian President Javier Milei advocates separating cryptocurrencies from state control, criticizes central bank digital currencies, promotes private management of cryptocurrencies, and warns against government overreach.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced support for the commercialization of asset tokenization plans, convening financial institutions from various countries to conduct industry trials and encouraging the establishment of industry standards to promote the commercialization and promotion of tokenized capital market products.
Surinamese presidential candidate Maya Parbhoe promised that if elected in 2025, he would make Bitcoin a legal currency, gradually replacing the Surinamese dollar, planning to dissolve the central bank, reduce taxes, privatize public services, and use Bitcoin's transparency to combat corruption, stating that Bitcoin is key to rebuilding the country's financial infrastructure.
Polish presidential candidate Sławomir Mentzen promised to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve if elected.
The efforts and statements of these political figures indicate that Bitcoin is set to occupy a more significant position in the future financial landscape, steadily stepping into the grand vision of the global economic system, shining like a new star and attracting the attention of political circles.
Regulatory Shift: Institutions Flood In
As the regulatory environment becomes more open and transparent in 2024, the cryptocurrency industry is entering a new era. In this wave, the 'dual listing' model is gradually becoming a favorite among listed companies, with many enterprises incorporating Bitcoin into their asset strategic reserves. Among them, Tesla and MicroStrategy stand out, achieving 'diamond hands victory' with their firm holding strategies; the stock price of MSTR surged from around $194 to nearly $500 in just about a month, an increase of about 150%; in the Hong Kong stock market, the 'twin stars' Boya and Meitu, two Bitcoin giants, hold 2641 and 940 BTC, respectively; Coinbase, the first public cryptocurrency exchange, has total profits of $804 million, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 7.88 times.
Such effectiveness has led to a wave of listed companies following suit. On November 19, Nano Labs Ltd (Nasdaq: NA) announced plans to allocate part of its remaining cash flow to Bitcoin and hold it as a long-term strategic reserve asset; on the same day, US-listed company Genius Group Limited (GNS) announced it had spent $10 million to purchase 110 BTC at an average price of $90,932; the niche e-commerce platform focused on spirits and beverages, US-listed LQR House Inc. (LQR), announced that its board had approved the purchase of $1 million worth of Bitcoin as part of its fund management strategy; on November 20, US-listed biopharmaceutical company Acurx Pharmaceuticals (ACXP) approved purchasing $1 million in Bitcoin as a reserve asset; that day, another US-listed company, Hoth Therapeutics (HOTH), announced its board approved the purchase of up to $1 million in Bitcoin... It is evident that many listed companies have fully recognized BTC's value storage function and stock price-boosting effect, joining this 'BTC strategic reserve race.'
Image Source: HODL15Capital
BTC Ecosystem: Lying in Wait for Spring to Bloom
The Bitcoin ecosystem resembles an accelerated version of the cryptocurrency circle, from the birth of the Ordinals protocol at the end of 2022, to the brief NFT boom in early 2023, followed by a short bear market in mid-2023, where everyone actively engaged in various spaces discussing visions for the future, and then the BRC20 triggered a second mini bull market. By autumn 2023, the market returned to silence, followed by the third peak in early 2024, and has since been brewing. In just two years, the entire cryptocurrency circle has completed a cycle of bull and bear.
Over the past year, Bitcoin's market dominance has significantly increased, rising from 45.27% to 56.81%, with a substantial growth in spot ETF holdings. A new market has fully opened, centered around Bitcoin as the core asset, with ETFs and US stocks as funding channels and US-listed companies as vehicles, highlighting the necessity of developing its ecosystem and improving capital efficiency. In Layer 2, 77 projects have taken action in the past three years, and in the first half of 2024, some old projects saw an increase in trading volume and token prices driven by the ETF craze, with various solutions emerging, totaling a locked value of $3 billion, expected to grow significantly in the future. New execution standards have appeared in the Layer 1 execution layer, with activities steadily increasing but lacking sustained momentum thereafter. In other infrastructure areas, interoperability solutions such as bridging and WBTC are mainstream, with expectations for more solutions to be introduced; in the security layer, due to interoperability potentially threatening asset security, relevant security solutions such as Babylon's Bitcoin timestamp and staking protocols have emerged, along with new technologies in the data availability layer (DA layer), such as Nubit, releasing Bitcoin's potential value.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is currently still in a relatively discordant position. However, compared to last year, there has been significant progress. The Bitcoin ecosystem will not miss out on the impending bull market; there are still many narratives waiting to be explored. The previous dormancy and accumulation have built enough momentum. A multitude of innovative projects are on the way.
Witnessing history: Bitcoin has first broken the $100,000 mark; where will it go next?
Around 10:30 AM on December 5, the BTC price briefly surged over $100,000, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%, marking Bitcoin's first successful breakthrough of the $100,000 threshold. Meanwhile, Ethereum surpassed $3,800 USDT with a 24-hour increase of 5.35%; SOL broke through $230 USDT, with a 24-hour decline reduced to 2%.
Image Source: OKX
The media effect triggered by Bitcoin's price surpassing $100,000 has brought Crypto and decentralization successfully into the mainstream public view. It prompts the public to look back on its past, from its insignificant beginnings at birth to its current proud stance, with its price ascent resembling a grand legendary journey. Counting from the iconic Pizza Day, it has been sixteen years.
It gradually moved from the margins to the center. When Bitcoin first broke the $1 mark, many may not have anticipated its astonishing potential; when it crossed significant thresholds like $100 and $1,000, the entire world took notice. Now, breaking through $100,000 has pushed Bitcoin to a whole new height.
In the end, I wish Bitcoin can continue to create miracles, and may we who believe in Bitcoin create miracles.
